NYSE: TFIN · Regional Banks
Triumph Financial (TFIN) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Triumph Financial (TFIN) at $16.56 a share. The stock last closed at $62.18, which puts the model's fair value 73.4% below the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Triumph Financial, Inc.
What price range does the model give TFIN?
The calibrated range for TFIN over 63 trading days is $13.89 to $20.19. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $12.85 to $20.94. In 0% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TFIN compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Triumph Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LKFN Lakeland Financial Corporation | $59.07 | $57.42 | -2.8% | Fairly valued |
| TMP Tompkins Financial Corporation | $98.89 | $112.19 | +13.4% | Undervalued |
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | $59.60 | $62.23 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| CASH Pathward Financial, Inc. | $73.96 | $99.49 | +34.5% | Undervalued |
| PFBC Preferred Bank | $106.48 | $140.79 | +32.2% | Undervalued |
| STBA S&T Bancorp, Inc. | $49.64 | $46.61 | -6.1% | Overvalued |
| HOPE Hope Bancorp, Inc. | $13.68 | $12.49 | -8.7% | Overvalued |
| DCOM Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. | $39.88 | $38.50 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
When does TFIN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Triumph Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 12.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How TFIN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | +4.1% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -5.9% |
| 26 Jan 2026 | -5.6% |
| 15 Oct 2025 | +6.1% |
| 16 Jul 2025 | -0.3% |
| 16 Apr 2025 | +3.9% |
| 22 Jan 2025 | -13.6% |
| 16 Oct 2024 | +7.8% |
Triumph Financial at a glance
Triumph Financial, Inc., a financial technology enterprise founded in 1981 and based in Dallas, Texas, centers its operations on payments, factoring, and banking. The company, which rebranded from Triumph Bancorp, Inc.
- Market value
- $1.5B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -8.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.92
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Triumph Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TFIN was $15.99. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $16.56, a change of +3.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Triumph Financial's valuation
Is Triumph Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts TFIN's fair value at $16.56 a share against a last close of $62.18, as of 26 Sep 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is TFIN's fair value?
$16.56 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $12.85 to $20.94.
What price range does the model give TFIN?
$13.89 to $20.19 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Triumph Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TFIN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.6% around the report of 22 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TFIN is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.