NASDAQ: STBA · Regional Banks
S&T Bancorp (STBA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values S&T Bancorp (STBA) at $46.61 a share. The stock last closed at $49.64, which puts the model's fair value 6.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. S&T Bancorp, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
S&T Bancorp, Inc. operates as the parent company for S&T Bank, providing a comprehensive range of retail and commercial banking products and services.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $46.61 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $46.46, meaning the fair value moved +0.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $39.10 to $56.83, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is High.
Faircurve's model compares S&T Bancorp, Inc. with Hope Bancorp, Inc. (HOPE), Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. (DCOM), National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC), Pathward Financial, Inc. (CASH), City Holding Company (CHCO), Lakeland Financial Corporation (LKFN), and The Bancorp, Inc. (TBBK). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved +4.4% on 23 Jul 2026, -0.4% on 23 Apr 2026, -2.1% on 22 Jan 2026, +2.1% on 23 Oct 2025, -2.5% on 24 Jul 2025, +4.5% on 24 Apr 2025, +3.7% on 30 Jan 2025, and -6.3% on 17 Oct 2024. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 3.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give STBA?
The calibrated range for STBA over 63 trading days is $39.10 to $56.83. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $43.00 to $50.21. In 23% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does STBA compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to S&T Bancorp in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOPE Hope Bancorp, Inc. | $13.68 | $12.49 | -8.7% | Overvalued |
| DCOM Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. | $39.88 | $38.50 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| NBHC National Bank Holdings Corporation | $38.06 | $34.44 | -9.5% | Fairly valued |
| CASH Pathward Financial, Inc. | $73.96 | $99.49 | +34.5% | Undervalued |
| CHCO City Holding Company | $142.82 | $113.26 | -20.7% | Overvalued |
| LKFN Lakeland Financial Corporation | $59.07 | $57.42 | -2.8% | Fairly valued |
| TFIN Triumph Financial, Inc. | $62.18 | $16.56 | -73.4% | Gap wider than 60% |
| TBBK The Bancorp, Inc. | $48.81 | $63.01 | +29.1% | Undervalued |
When does STBA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
S&T Bancorp's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How STBA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | +4.4% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | -0.4% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | -2.1% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | +2.1% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -2.5% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +4.5% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | +3.7% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | -6.3% |
S&T Bancorp at a glance
S&T Bancorp, Inc. operates as the parent company for S&T Bank, providing a comprehensive range of retail and commercial banking products and services.
- Market value
- $1.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -25.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.40
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices S&T Bancorp on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for STBA was $46.46. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $46.61, a change of +0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about S&T Bancorp's valuation
Is S&T Bancorp stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, STBA reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $46.61 a share against a last close of $49.64, a gap of -6.1%.
What is STBA's fair value?
$46.61 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $43.00 to $50.21.
What price range does the model give STBA?
$39.10 to $56.83 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does S&T Bancorp report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has STBA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.3% around the report of 17 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for STBA is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.