NYSE: NBHC · Regional Banks
National Bank (NBHC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values National Bank (NBHC) at $33.13 a share. The stock last closed at $38.06, which puts the model's fair value 13.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. National Bank Holdings Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) serves as the parent company for NBH Bank, providing banking products and financial services to commercial businesses and individual consumers across the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $33.13 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $34.44, so the fair value moved -3.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $27.64 to $40.16, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The model compares National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) with Hope Bancorp, Inc. (HOPE), S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA), Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. (DCOM), Pathward Financial, Inc. (CASH), Lakeland Financial Corporation (LKFN), City Holding Company (CHCO), and The Bancorp, Inc. (TBBK). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 3.0%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NBHC?
The calibrated range for NBHC over 63 trading days is $27.64 to $40.16. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $25.71 to $41.89. In 31% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NBHC compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to National Bank in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOPE Hope Bancorp, Inc. | $13.68 | $12.19 | -10.9% | Overvalued |
| STBA S&T Bancorp, Inc. | $49.64 | $45.12 | -9.1% | Overvalued |
| DCOM Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. | $39.88 | $37.91 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| CASH Pathward Financial, Inc. | $73.96 | $99.60 | +34.7% | Undervalued |
| TFIN Triumph Financial, Inc. | $62.18 | $16.51 | -73.4% | Gap wider than 60% |
| LKFN Lakeland Financial Corporation | $59.07 | $57.00 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| CHCO City Holding Company | $142.82 | $113.38 | -20.6% | Overvalued |
| TBBK The Bancorp, Inc. | $48.81 | $63.40 | +29.9% | Undervalued |
When does NBHC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
National Bank's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How NBHC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | -4.5% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -1.5% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | -1.1% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | +2.7% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | +1.7% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +3.3% |
| 22 Jan 2025 | -4.2% |
| 22 Oct 2024 | +8.1% |
National Bank at a glance
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) serves as the parent company for NBH Bank, providing a comprehensive range of banking products and financial services to commercial businesses and individual consumers across the United States.
- Market value
- $1.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -8.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.52
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices National Bank on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NBHC was $34.44. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $33.13, a change of -3.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about National Bank's valuation
Is National Bank stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NBHC reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $33.13 a share against a last close of $38.06, a gap of -13.0%.
What is NBHC's fair value?
$33.13 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $25.71 to $41.89.
What price range does the model give NBHC?
$27.64 to $40.16 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does National Bank report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NBHC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.1% around the report of 22 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NBHC is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.