AMEX: TMP · Regional Banks
Tompkins Financial (TMP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Tompkins Financial (TMP) at $115.55 a share. The stock last closed at $98.89, which puts the model's fair value 16.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Tompkins Financial Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Tompkins Financial Corporation functions as a financial holding entity, offering a comprehensive array of services that include commercial and retail banking, leasing, trust and investment management, financial planning, wealth management, and insurance. The company operates in Financial Services and Regional Banks.
Faircurve's model valued Tompkins Financial Corporation on 3 Oct 2026, giving a fair value of $115.55 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +3.0% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $112.19. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $96.40 to $140.08, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as High.
The business scores on quality against comparable companies: Westamerica Bancorporation (WABC), Lakeland Financial Corporation (LKFN), Pathward Financial, Inc. (CASH), Preferred Bank (PFBC), National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC), Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA), and Hope Bancorp, Inc. (HOPE). The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 4.4%. These moves were: 24 Jul 2026 +7.6%, 24 Apr 2026 -0.6%, 30 Jan 2026 +5.7%, 24 Oct 2025 +3.0%, 25 Jul 2025 +8.6%, 25 Apr 2025 +2.9%, 31 Jan 2025 +3.0%, and 25 Oct 2024 +7.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TMP?
The calibrated range for TMP over 63 trading days is $96.40 to $140.08. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $103.62 to $127.81. In 90% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TMP compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Tompkins Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | $59.60 | $62.81 | +5.4% | Fairly valued |
| LKFN Lakeland Financial Corporation | $59.07 | $57.00 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| TFIN Triumph Financial, Inc. | $62.18 | $16.51 | -73.4% | Gap wider than 60% |
| CASH Pathward Financial, Inc. | $73.96 | $99.60 | +34.7% | Undervalued |
| PFBC Preferred Bank | $106.48 | $140.45 | +31.9% | Undervalued |
| NBHC National Bank Holdings Corporation | $38.06 | $33.13 | -13.0% | Fairly valued |
| HFWA Heritage Financial Corporation | $28.14 | $19.90 | -29.3% | Overvalued |
| HOPE Hope Bancorp, Inc. | $13.68 | $12.19 | -10.9% | Overvalued |
When does TMP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Tompkins Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 1 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 49 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How TMP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | +7.6% |
| 24 Apr 2026 | -0.6% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | +5.7% |
| 24 Oct 2025 | +3.0% |
| 25 Jul 2025 | +8.6% |
| 25 Apr 2025 | +2.9% |
| 31 Jan 2025 | +3.0% |
| 25 Oct 2024 | +7.9% |
Tompkins Financial at a glance
Tompkins Financial Corporation functions as a financial holding entity, offering a comprehensive array of services that include commercial and retail banking, leasing, trust and investment management, financial planning, wealth management, and insurance.
- Market value
- $1.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -39.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.60
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Tompkins Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TMP was $112.19. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $115.55, a change of +3.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Tompkins Financial's valuation
Is Tompkins Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TMP reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $115.55 a share against a last close of $98.89, a gap of +16.8%.
What is TMP's fair value?
$115.55 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $103.62 to $127.81.
What price range does the model give TMP?
$96.40 to $140.08 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Tompkins Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TMP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.6% around the report of 25 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TMP is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.