NASDAQ: CBSH · Regional Banks
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) at $53.12 a share. The stock last closed at $55.63, which puts the model's fair value 4.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $51.25 to $53.12 (+3.6%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $55.63 is 4.5% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 21 Jan 2027. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CBSH?
The calibrated range for CBSH over 63 trading days is $43.03 to $63.45. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $41.23 to $67.17. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is the parent organisation for Commerce Bank. The bank delivers a comprehensive suite of financial products and services.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value of Commerce Bancshares at $53.12 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $51.25, so the fair value moved +3.6%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $43.03 to $63.45, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock. The range is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. It looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The facts sheet gives no quality score for the business, so this note cannot report how it ranks on quality against its peers. The model compares the company with ten others, each with a fair value of its own on the site: Valley National Bancorp (VLY), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB), Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB), United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI), Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION), F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) and Old National Bancorp (ONB).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CBSH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Commerce Bancshares's next earnings report is scheduled for 21 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CBSH's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.6%.
How does CBSH compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Commerce Bancshares in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLY Valley National Bancorp | $14.27 | $13.57 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | $76.77 | $102.35 | +33.3% | Undervalued |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | $73.11 | $48.85 | -33.2% | Overvalued |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $30.84 | $29.38 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
| UBSI United Bankshares, Inc. | $48.47 | $35.76 | -26.2% | Overvalued |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $65.75 | $89.94 | +36.8% | Undervalued |
| FNB F.N.B. Corporation | $18.25 | $16.61 | -9.0% | Overvalued |
| ONB Old National Bancorp | $25.42 | $25.13 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
Commerce Bancshares at a glance
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. functions as the parent organization for Commerce Bank, delivering a comprehensive suite of financial products and services.
- Market value
- $7.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -7.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.15
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CBSH was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Commerce Bancshares on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CBSH was $51.25. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $53.12, a change of +3.6%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Commerce Bancshares's valuation
Is Commerce Bancshares stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CBSH reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $53.12 a share against a last close of $55.63, a gap of -4.5%.
What is CBSH's fair value?
$53.12 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $41.23 to $67.17.
What price range does the model give CBSH?
$43.03 to $63.45 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Commerce Bancshares report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 21 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CBSH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.3% around the report of 16 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CBSH is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CBSH
The model holds no idea open on CBSH today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CBSH with their outcomes. A free account is enough.