NYSE: WAL ยท Regional Banks
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) fair value and price range
As of 20 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) at $98.06 a share. The stock last closed at $78.65, which puts the model's fair value 24.7% above the price. No verdict is shown for WAL. Banks, insurers and real estate investment trusts (REITs) are valued with a separate method, and the model's evidence grade has not been worked out for that method yet. The fair value is shown for reference.
Revalued . Price is the close of 21 Sep 2026. Western Alliance Bancorporation.
What price range does the model give WAL?
The calibrated range for WAL over 63 trading days is $72.65 to $91.35. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that WAL's own options imply (33% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $85.63 to $111.17. In 92% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does WAL compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Western Alliance Bancorporation in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $29.90 | $27.32 | -8.6% | Not graded yet |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | $69.91 | $46.24 | -33.9% | Not graded yet |
| CBSH Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | $56.55 | $52.01 | -8.0% | Not graded yet |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $64.98 | $93.47 | +43.8% | Not graded yet |
| ONB Old National Bancorp | $25.25 | $23.22 | -8.0% | Not graded yet |
| VLY Valley National Bancorp | $13.40 | $13.19 | -1.6% | Not graded yet |
| CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | $158.74 | $129.75 | -18.3% | Not graded yet |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corporation | $147.08 | $149.68 | +1.8% | Not graded yet |
When does WAL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Western Alliance Bancorporation's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 21 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 6.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 24 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. WAL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.4% over one month.
How WAL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | +3.0% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -1.4% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | +0.3% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | +4.4% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | -1.4% |
| 21 Apr 2025 | +9.0% |
| 27 Jan 2025 | -3.2% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | -6.7% |
Western Alliance Bancorporation at a glance
Western Alliance Bancorporation serves as the holding entity for Western Alliance Bank, offering a broad spectrum of banking products and related financial services, with its primary operations centered in Arizona, California, and Nevada.
- Market value
- $8.6B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -24.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.24
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Western Alliance Bancorporation on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for WAL was $94.00. As of 20 Sep 2026 it is $98.06, a change of +4.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Western Alliance Bancorporation's valuation
Is Western Alliance Bancorporation stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts WAL's fair value at $98.06 a share against a last close of $78.65, as of 20 Sep 2026. No verdict is shown for WAL. Banks, insurers and real estate investment trusts (REITs) are valued with a separate method, and the model's evidence grade has not been worked out for that method yet. The fair value is shown for reference.
What is WAL's fair value?
$98.06 a share as of 20 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $85.63 to $111.17.
What price range does the model give WAL?
$72.65 to $91.35 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Western Alliance Bancorporation report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WAL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.0% around the report of 21 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for WAL has not been graded yet. Banks, insurers and real estate investment trusts are valued with a separate method, and the evidence grade has not been worked out for it. No grade is a probability that a fair value is right.