NYSE: WAL · Regional Banks
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) at $102.35 a share. The stock last closed at $75.88, which puts the model's fair value 34.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Western Alliance Bancorporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $102.35, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $75.88 is 34.9% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 25 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give WAL?
The calibrated range for WAL over 63 trading days is $68.24 to $86.45. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that WAL's own options imply (36% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $86.97 to $119.00. In 94% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) is the holding entity for Western Alliance Bank, which offers a broad spectrum of banking products and related financial services, with its primary operations centred in Arizona, California and Nevada.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $102.35 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $102.18, so the model's fair value moved +0.2%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $69.54 to $86.69. The range is built from the volatility the stock's own options imply and is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs), the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
This note cannot report how the business scores on quality against its peers, because the facts behind it do not include those scores. Faircurve's model compares the company with Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB), Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH), Valley National Bancorp (VLY), Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB), Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION), Old National Bancorp (ONB), Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) and SouthState Bank Corp. (SSB). Each has a fair value of its own on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does WAL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Western Alliance Bancorporation's next earnings report is scheduled for 25 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. WAL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.3% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 WAL moved 4.2% in one session, against the 2.1% a day that options had priced: 2.0 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across WAL's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in WAL
How does WAL compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Western Alliance Bancorporation in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PB Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | $71.97 | $48.85 | -32.1% | Overvalued |
| CBSH Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | $55.22 | $53.12 | -3.8% | Fairly valued |
| VLY Valley National Bancorp | $14.06 | $13.57 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $30.43 | $29.38 | -3.4% | Fairly valued |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $64.93 | $89.94 | +38.5% | Undervalued |
| ONB Old National Bancorp | $25.05 | $25.13 | +0.3% | Fairly valued |
| CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | $156.68 | $131.53 | -16.1% | Overvalued |
| SSB SouthState Bank Corp. | $104.72 | $87.07 | -16.9% | Overvalued |
Western Alliance Bancorporation at a glance
Western Alliance Bancorporation serves as the holding entity for Western Alliance Bank, offering a broad spectrum of banking products and related financial services, with its primary operations centered in Arizona, California, and Nevada.
- Market value
- $8.3B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -24.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 1.01
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. WAL was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Western Alliance Bancorporation on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for WAL was $102.18. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $102.35, a change of +0.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Western Alliance Bancorporation's valuation
Is Western Alliance Bancorporation stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WAL reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $102.35 a share against a last close of $75.88, a gap of +34.9%.
What is WAL's fair value?
$102.35 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $86.97 to $119.00.
What price range does the model give WAL?
$68.24 to $86.45 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Western Alliance Bancorporation report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 25 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WAL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +4.4% around the report of 21 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WAL is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on WAL
The model holds no idea open on WAL today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on WAL with their outcomes. A free account is enough.