NASDAQ: ONB · Regional Banks
Old National Bancorp (ONB) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Old National Bancorp (ONB) at $22.71 a share. The stock last closed at $24.96, which puts the model's fair value 9.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Old National Bancorp.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Old National Bancorp functions as the parent company for Old National Bank, furnishing a wide array of financial services to both individual and commercial clients throughout the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $22.71 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $22.93, so the fair value moved -1.0%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $18.95 to $27.53, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The model compares the company with Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR), Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC), SouthState Bank Corp. (SSB), Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION), UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), First Horizon Corporation (FHN), and Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, were -0.2% on 22 Jul 2026, +0.9% on 22 Apr 2026, +5.9% on 21 Jan 2026, -0.3% on 22 Oct 2025, -2.7% on 22 Jul 2025, +6.8% on 22 Apr 2025, +2.2% on 21 Jan 2025, and +0.2% on 22 Oct 2024. The median size, ignoring direction, was 1.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ONB?
The calibrated range for ONB over 63 trading days is $18.95 to $27.53. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $17.63 to $28.72. In 37% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ONB compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Old National Bancorp in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | $155.04 | $126.88 | -18.2% | Overvalued |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corporation | $145.02 | $146.66 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| SSB SouthState Bank Corp. | $101.91 | $86.98 | -14.7% | Fairly valued |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $63.17 | $91.34 | +44.6% | Undervalued |
| UMBF UMB Financial Corporation | $130.94 | $125.99 | -3.8% | Fairly valued |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | $76.38 | $95.05 | +24.4% | Undervalued |
| FHN First Horizon Corporation | $23.42 | $22.30 | -4.8% | Fairly valued |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $28.92 | $26.80 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
When does ONB report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Old National Bancorp's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How ONB moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | -0.2% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +0.9% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | +5.9% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | -0.3% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | -2.7% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +6.8% |
| 21 Jan 2025 | +2.2% |
| 22 Oct 2024 | +0.2% |
Old National Bancorp at a glance
Old National Bancorp functions as the parent company for Old National Bank, furnishing a wide array of financial services to both individual and commercial clients throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $9.5B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -21.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.82
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Old National Bancorp on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ONB was $22.93. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $22.71, a change of -1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Old National Bancorp's valuation
Is Old National Bancorp stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ONB reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $22.71 a share against a last close of $24.96, a gap of -9.0%.
What is ONB's fair value?
$22.71 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $17.63 to $28.72.
What price range does the model give ONB?
$18.95 to $27.53 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Old National Bancorp report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ONB moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.8% around the report of 22 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ONB is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.