NYSE: PB · Regional Banks
Prosperity Bancshares (PB) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Prosperity Bancshares (PB) at $48.85 a share. The stock last closed at $73.11, which puts the model's fair value 33.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Prosperity Bancshares, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $47.22 to $48.85 (+3.5%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $73.11 is 33.2% above it: Overvalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 4 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 8% either way. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 2 Nov 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give PB?
The calibrated range for PB over 63 trading days is $39.57 to $58.35. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 35% of the time over 63 trading days, and 64% ended above it; the typical move was −4.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $37.91 to $61.76. In 9% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. is the holding company for Prosperity Bank. The bank offers a comprehensive suite of financial solutions to individual and corporate clients.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Prosperity Bancshares at $48.85 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. That is up from $47.22 on the previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, a move of +3.5%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $39.57 to $58.35. The range is built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and is calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as High. The grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The sheet gives no quality scores for the business against its peers. Faircurve's model compares it with Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION), Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH), Valley National Bancorp (VLY), Old National Bancorp (ONB), Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) and SouthState Bank Corp. (SSB), each with a fair value of its own on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does PB report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Prosperity Bancshares's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 30 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across PB's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.1%.
How does PB compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Prosperity Bancshares in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $30.84 | $29.38 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | $76.77 | $102.35 | +33.3% | Undervalued |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $65.75 | $89.94 | +36.8% | Undervalued |
| CBSH Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | $55.63 | $53.12 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
| VLY Valley National Bancorp | $14.27 | $13.57 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| ONB Old National Bancorp | $25.42 | $25.13 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
| CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | $159.14 | $131.53 | -17.3% | Overvalued |
| SSB SouthState Bank Corp. | $105.95 | $87.07 | -17.8% | Overvalued |
Prosperity Bancshares at a glance
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. serves as the holding company for Prosperity Bank, providing a comprehensive suite of financial solutions to both individual customers and corporate clients.
- Market value
- $8.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 0.31
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. PB was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Prosperity Bancshares on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PB was $47.22. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $48.85, a change of +3.5%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Prosperity Bancshares's valuation
Is Prosperity Bancshares stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PB reads as Overvalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $48.85 a share against a last close of $73.11, a gap of -33.2%.
What is PB's fair value?
$48.85 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $37.91 to $61.76.
What price range does the model give PB?
$39.57 to $58.35 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Prosperity Bancshares report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PB moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.3% around the report of 23 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PB is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PB
The model has an idea open on PB under Earnings Momentum since 2 Nov 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PB with their outcomes. A free account is enough.