NYSE: TFC · Regional Banks
Truist Financial (TFC) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Truist Financial (TFC) at $43.98 a share. The stock last closed at $46.45, which puts the model's fair value 5.3% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Truist Financial Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Truist Financial Corporation operates as a diversified financial holding company, providing an extensive array of banking and trust services throughout the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $43.98 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of -2.2% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $44.95. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $36.90 to $53.63, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, over 4,327 past valuations, refreshed on 26 Sep 2026. The model graded the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model compared the business's quality against East West Bancorp, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -4.2% to +6.5%, with a median size of 2.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TFC?
The calibrated range for TFC over 63 trading days is $36.90 to $53.63. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $40.58 to $47.38. In 18% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TFC compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Truist Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $50.87 | $34.40 | -32.4% | Low evidence grade |
| PNC The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $221.03 | $194.12 | -12.2% | Low evidence grade |
| MTB M&T Bank Corporation | $219.14 | $195.58 | -10.8% | Low evidence grade |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $15.33 | $12.75 | -16.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $64.33 | $48.90 | -24.0% | Low evidence grade |
| RF Regions Financial Corporation | $27.10 | $26.25 | -3.1% | Low evidence grade |
| KEY KeyCorp | $20.08 | $20.85 | +3.8% | Low evidence grade |
| EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. | $126.21 | $125.22 | -0.8% | Fairly valued |
When does TFC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Truist Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 16 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How TFC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2026 | -4.2% |
| 17 Apr 2026 | +2.9% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | +2.4% |
| 17 Oct 2025 | +5.7% |
| 18 Jul 2025 | -0.6% |
| 17 Apr 2025 | -1.9% |
| 17 Jan 2025 | +6.5% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | -1.9% |
Truist Financial at a glance
Truist Financial Corporation operates as a diversified financial holding company, providing an extensive array of banking and trust services throughout the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States.
- Market value
- $59.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -30.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- 0.97
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Truist Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TFC was $44.95. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $43.98, a change of -2.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Truist Financial's valuation
Is Truist Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts TFC's fair value at $43.98 a share against a last close of $46.45, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is TFC's fair value?
$43.98 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $40.58 to $47.38.
What price range does the model give TFC?
$36.90 to $53.63 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Truist Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 16 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TFC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.5% around the report of 17 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TFC is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.