NYSE: CFR · Regional Banks
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) at $131.53 a share. The stock last closed at $159.14, which puts the model's fair value 17.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $133.21 to $131.53 (-1.3%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $159.14 is 17.3% above it: Overvalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 28 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 6% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CFR?
The calibrated range for CFR over 63 trading days is $149.26 to $172.18. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CFR's own options imply (22% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $103.08 to $164.81. In 25% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) operates as the bank holding company for Frost Bank. It provides commercial and consumer banking services in Texas.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $131.53 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $133.21, so the model's fair value moved -1.3%. In the model's own words, it does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $149.26 to $172.18, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, based on 6,661 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence High. The grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The sheet gives no quality scores for the business, so this note cannot compare it with peers on quality. The model compares Cullen/Frost with ten companies, each with a fair value of its own on the site: Old National Bancorp (ONB), Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION), SouthState Bank Corp. (SSB), UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF), Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC), Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB), First Horizon Corporation (FHN) and Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB). Faircurve first valued the company on 11 Jul 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CFR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Cullen/Frost Bankers's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CFR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 6.2% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CFR's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CFR
How does CFR compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Cullen/Frost Bankers in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONB Old National Bancorp | $25.42 | $25.13 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $65.75 | $89.94 | +36.8% | Undervalued |
| SSB SouthState Bank Corp. | $105.95 | $87.07 | -17.8% | Overvalued |
| UMBF UMB Financial Corporation | $136.09 | $137.26 | +0.9% | Fairly valued |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corporation | $155.37 | $156.94 | +1.0% | Fairly valued |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $30.84 | $29.38 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
| FHN First Horizon Corporation | $23.35 | $20.54 | -12.0% | Fairly valued |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | $73.11 | $48.85 | -33.2% | Overvalued |
Cullen/Frost Bankers at a glance
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Frost Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services in Texas.
- Market value
- $9.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -17.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CFR was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Cullen/Frost Bankers on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CFR was $133.21. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $131.53, a change of -1.3%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Cullen/Frost Bankers's valuation
Is Cullen/Frost Bankers stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CFR reads as Overvalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $131.53 a share against a last close of $159.14, a gap of -17.3%.
What is CFR's fair value?
$131.53 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $103.08 to $164.81.
What price range does the model give CFR?
$149.26 to $172.18 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Cullen/Frost Bankers report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CFR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.3% around the report of 31 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CFR is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CFR
The model holds no idea open on CFR today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CFR with their outcomes. A free account is enough.