NASDAQ: WTFC · Regional Banks
Wintrust Financial (WTFC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Wintrust Financial (WTFC) at $156.94 a share. The stock last closed at $151.72, which puts the model's fair value 3.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Wintrust Financial Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $156.94, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $151.72 is 3.4% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 19 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 8% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give WTFC?
The calibrated range for WTFC over 63 trading days is $139.53 to $168.17. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that WTFC's own options imply (28% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $121.80 to $198.43. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) is a diversified financial holding company. It structures its operations across three primary business segments: Community Banking, Specialty Finance, and Wealth Management.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value of Wintrust at $156.94 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave the same fair value. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $139.53 to $168.17. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations, ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. The grade looks at the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, the spread of outcomes, and whether the valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve compares Wintrust with ten companies, each with a fair value of its own on the site: UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF), SouthState Bank Corp. (SSB), Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR), Old National Bancorp (ONB), First Horizon Corporation (FHN), Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION), Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB), and Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB). The company was first valued by Faircurve on 11 Jul 2026. No quality score against these peers is available for this note.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does WTFC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Wintrust Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 19 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 4.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. WTFC's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.1% over one month.
On 2 Nov 2026 WTFC moved 3.3% in one session, against the 1.6% a day that options had priced: 2.0 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across WTFC's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in WTFC
How does WTFC compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Wintrust Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMBF UMB Financial Corporation | $134.70 | $137.26 | +1.9% | Fairly valued |
| SSB SouthState Bank Corp. | $104.72 | $87.07 | -16.9% | Overvalued |
| CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | $156.68 | $131.53 | -16.1% | Overvalued |
| ONB Old National Bancorp | $25.05 | $25.13 | +0.3% | Fairly valued |
| FHN First Horizon Corporation | $23.12 | $20.54 | -11.2% | Fairly valued |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $64.93 | $89.94 | +38.5% | Undervalued |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $30.43 | $29.38 | -3.4% | Fairly valued |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | $71.97 | $48.85 | -32.1% | Overvalued |
Wintrust Financial at a glance
Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) functions as a diversified financial holding company, structuring its operations across three primary business segments: Community Banking, Specialty Finance, and Wealth Management.
- Market value
- $10.3B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -29.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.62
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. WTFC was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Wintrust Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for WTFC was $157.00. It is unchanged at $156.94 as of 31 Oct 2026. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Wintrust Financial's valuation
Is Wintrust Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WTFC reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $156.94 a share against a last close of $151.72, a gap of +3.4%.
What is WTFC's fair value?
$156.94 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $121.80 to $198.43.
What price range does the model give WTFC?
$139.53 to $168.17 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Wintrust Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 19 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WTFC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +5.4% around the report of 20 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WTFC is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on WTFC
The model holds no idea open on WTFC today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on WTFC with their outcomes. A free account is enough.