NASDAQ: UMBF · Regional Banks
UMB Financial (UMBF) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values UMB Financial (UMBF) at $125.99 a share. The stock last closed at $130.94, which puts the model's fair value 3.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. UMB Financial Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
UMB Financial Corporation serves as the holding company for UMB Bank, delivering a comprehensive array of banking and financial solutions.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $125.99 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $127.10, so the fair value moved -0.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $105.11 to $152.74, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The model compares UMB Financial Corporation with SouthState Bank Corp. (SSB), Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC), Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR), Old National Bancorp (ONB), Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION), First Horizon Corporation (FHN), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), and Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved +5.2% on 28 Jul 2026, 0.0% on 28 Apr 2026, +1.8% on 27 Jan 2026, -3.3% on 28 Oct 2025, +1.7% on 29 Jul 2025, +7.8% on 29 Apr 2025, +1.2% on 28 Jan 2025, and +3.8% on 29 Oct 2024. The median size, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give UMBF?
The calibrated range for UMBF over 63 trading days is $105.11 to $152.74. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $97.78 to $159.30. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does UMBF compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to UMB Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSB SouthState Bank Corp. | $101.91 | $86.98 | -14.7% | Fairly valued |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corporation | $145.02 | $146.66 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | $155.04 | $126.88 | -18.2% | Overvalued |
| ONB Old National Bancorp | $24.96 | $22.71 | -9.0% | Fairly valued |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $63.17 | $91.34 | +44.6% | Undervalued |
| FHN First Horizon Corporation | $23.42 | $22.30 | -4.8% | Fairly valued |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | $76.38 | $95.05 | +24.4% | Undervalued |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $28.92 | $26.80 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
When does UMBF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
UMB Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How UMBF moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | +5.2% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | 0.0% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | +1.8% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -3.3% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | +1.7% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +7.8% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | +1.2% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | +3.8% |
UMB Financial at a glance
UMB Financial Corporation serves as the holding company for UMB Bank, delivering a comprehensive array of banking and financial solutions.
- Market value
- $9.9B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -32.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.76
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices UMB Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for UMBF was $127.10. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $125.99, a change of -0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about UMB Financial's valuation
Is UMB Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, UMBF reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $125.99 a share against a last close of $130.94, a gap of -3.8%.
What is UMBF's fair value?
$125.99 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $97.78 to $159.30.
What price range does the model give UMBF?
$105.11 to $152.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does UMB Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has UMBF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.8% around the report of 29 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for UMBF is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.