NASDAQ: CHCO · Regional Banks
City Holding (CHCO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values City Holding (CHCO) at $113.26 a share. The stock last closed at $142.82, which puts the model's fair value 20.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. City Holding Company.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
City Holding Company operates as the parent entity for City National Bank of West Virginia, offering a broad spectrum of financial services including banking, wealth management, and investment solutions throughout the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $113.26 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.0% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $112.14. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $95.02 to $138.10, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The business scores on quality against comparable companies: The Bancorp, Inc. (TBBK), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF), OFG Bancorp (OFG), National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC), Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI), Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. (DCOM), Hope Bancorp, Inc. (HOPE), S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports include +1.9% on 22 Jul 2026 and -1.0% on 24 Oct 2024, with a median size of 2.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CHCO?
The calibrated range for CHCO over 63 trading days is $95.02 to $138.10. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $87.91 to $143.21. In 20% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CHCO compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to City Holding in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBBK The Bancorp, Inc. | $48.81 | $63.01 | +29.1% | Undervalued |
| FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corporation | $20.56 | $20.45 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| OFG OFG Bancorp | $51.29 | $65.45 | +27.6% | Undervalued |
| NBHC National Bank Holdings Corporation | $38.06 | $34.44 | -9.5% | Fairly valued |
| NWBI Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | $15.19 | $14.45 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| DCOM Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. | $39.88 | $38.50 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| HOPE Hope Bancorp, Inc. | $13.68 | $12.49 | -8.7% | Overvalued |
| STBA S&T Bancorp, Inc. | $49.64 | $46.61 | -6.1% | Overvalued |
When does CHCO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
City Holding's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CHCO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | +1.9% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +0.4% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | +3.9% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | +1.7% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | +7.7% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +5.2% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | -2.6% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -1.0% |
City Holding at a glance
City Holding Company operates as the parent entity for City National Bank of West Virginia, offering a broad spectrum of financial services including banking, wealth management, and investment solutions throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $2.0B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -16.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.14
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices City Holding on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CHCO was $112.14. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $113.26, a change of +1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about City Holding's valuation
Is City Holding stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CHCO reads as Overvalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $113.26 a share against a last close of $142.82, a gap of -20.7%.
What is CHCO's fair value?
$113.26 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $87.91 to $143.21.
What price range does the model give CHCO?
$95.02 to $138.10 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does City Holding report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CHCO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.7% around the report of 22 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CHCO is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.