NYSE: HTH · Financial Conglomerates
Hilltop Holdings (HTH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Hilltop Holdings (HTH) at $33.71 a share. The stock last closed at $38.45, which puts the model's fair value 12.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Hilltop Holdings Inc., a Dallas, Texas-based entity established in 1998, delivers a comprehensive suite of financial products and services, catering to both corporate and individual clients.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $33.71 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $33.89, so the fair value moved -0.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $28.28 to $41.10, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The business is compared with OFG Bancorp (OFG), HCI Group, Inc. (HCI), Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF), The Bancorp, Inc. (TBBK), WaFd, Inc. (WAFD), and Banner Corporation (BANR). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports were: 23 Jul 2026 +2.5%, 23 Apr 2026 -2.4%, 29 Jan 2026 +2.8%, 23 Oct 2025 +4.0%, 24 Jul 2025 -2.7%, 24 Apr 2025 +2.4%, 30 Jan 2025 +1.9%, 24 Oct 2024 -1.2%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 2.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HTH?
The calibrated range for HTH over 63 trading days is $28.28 to $41.10. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $31.10 to $36.32. In 7% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HTH compare with similar companies?
The companies in financial conglomerates closest to Hilltop Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFG OFG Bancorp | $51.29 | $65.45 | +27.6% | Undervalued |
| HCI HCI Group, Inc. | $184.25 | $256.23 | +39.1% | Undervalued |
| NWBI Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | $15.19 | $14.45 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corporation | $20.56 | $20.45 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| ECPG Encore Capital Group, Inc. | $95.92 | $108.08 | +12.7% | Low evidence grade |
| TBBK The Bancorp, Inc. | $48.81 | $63.01 | +29.1% | Undervalued |
| WAFD WaFd, Inc. | $30.80 | $39.11 | +27.0% | Undervalued |
| BANR Banner Corporation | $67.88 | $67.09 | -1.2% | Fairly valued |
When does HTH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hilltop Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How HTH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | +2.5% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | -2.4% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | +2.8% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | +4.0% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -2.7% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +2.4% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | +1.9% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -1.2% |
Hilltop Holdings at a glance
Hilltop Holdings Inc., a Dallas, Texas-based entity established in 1998, delivers a comprehensive suite of financial products and services, catering to both corporate and individual clients.
- Market value
- $2.2B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Financial Conglomerates
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -22.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.40
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hilltop Holdings on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HTH was $33.89. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $33.71, a change of -0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hilltop Holdings's valuation
Is Hilltop Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HTH reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $33.71 a share against a last close of $38.45, a gap of -12.3%.
What is HTH's fair value?
$33.71 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $31.10 to $36.32.
What price range does the model give HTH?
$28.28 to $41.10 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Hilltop Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HTH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +4.0% around the report of 23 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HTH is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.