NYSE: CHWY · Specialty Retail
Chewy (CHWY) fair value and price range
As of 2 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Chewy (CHWY) at $21.82 a share. The stock last closed at $22.05, which puts the model's fair value 1.0% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Chewy, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 2 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $22.34 to $21.82 (-2.3%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $22.05 is 1.0% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 9 Dec 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 15% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CHWY?
The calibrated range for CHWY over 63 trading days is $18.81 to $26.80. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CHWY's own options imply (53% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $13.06 to $35.37. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Nov 2026
Chewy, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, operates exclusively as an online retail enterprise within the United States.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value of Chewy at $21.82 a share on 2 Nov 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $22.34, and the fair value moved -2.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $18.59 to $27.19, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. The range is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade covers input completeness, comparable companies and outcome spread. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Chewy's overall quality score is 81 out of 100, a composite of six factors. Earnings quality scores 95, with free cash flow to net income at 2.08x against a peer median of 0.93x. Capital discipline scores 94, with net buybacks at 6.6% of market value against a peer median of 2.7%. Profitability scores 93, with ROIC at 28.8% against a peer median of 19.7%. Growth quality scores 46, with trailing revenue growth of 6.2% against a peer median of 7.0%. The model compares Chewy with Etsy, Murphy USA, GameStop, DICK'S Sporting Goods, Five Below, Bath & Body Works, Tractor Supply and Best Buy.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CHWY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Chewy's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 8 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CHWY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.4% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CHWY's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CHWY
How does CHWY score on business quality?
Chewy's overall quality score is 81 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 93 | 28.8%ROIC | 19.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 2.08xFCF / net income | 0.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 46 | 6.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 94 | 6.6%Net buybacks / market value | 2.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 68 | 1.00xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.90x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 86 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does CHWY compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Chewy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETSY Etsy, Inc. | $89.86 | $96.64 | +7.5% | Fairly valued |
| MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | $509.34 | $616.05 | +21.0% | Undervalued |
| GME GameStop Corp. | $24.27 | $24.86 | +2.4% | Fairly valued |
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | $137.08 | $151.65 | +10.6% | Fairly valued |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $236.19 | $234.83 | -0.6% | Fairly valued |
| BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $22.61 | $25.43 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $35.10 | $32.62 | -7.1% | Fairly valued |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $93.87 | $120.86 | +28.8% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CHWY, the peer-implied price, is $23.83 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Chewy at a glance
Chewy, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, functions exclusively as an online retail enterprise within the United States.
- Market value
- $8.6B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- 0.47
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Chewy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CHWY was $22.34. As of 2 Nov 2026 it is $21.82, a change of -2.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Chewy's valuation
Is Chewy stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CHWY's fair value at $21.82 a share against a last close of $22.05, as of 2 Nov 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CHWY's fair value?
$21.82 a share as of 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $13.06 to $35.37.
What price range does the model give CHWY?
$18.81 to $26.80 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Chewy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CHWY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.2% around the report of 25 Mar 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CHWY is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CHWY
The model holds no idea open on CHWY today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CHWY with their outcomes. A free account is enough.