NYSE: ETSY · Specialty Retail
Etsy (ETSY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Etsy (ETSY) at $96.64 a share. The stock last closed at $91.53, which puts the model's fair value 5.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Etsy, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $96.64, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $91.53 is 5.6% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 18 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 17% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ETSY?
The calibrated range for ETSY over 63 trading days is $77.04 to $113.11. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ETSY's own options imply (58% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $68.77 to $128.85. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Etsy, Inc. oversees online retail platforms designed to link independent merchants with a global customer base. Its main marketplace sells unique and handcrafted items, and its Depop division focuses on apparel resale.
Faircurve's model put Etsy's fair value at $96.64 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $97.11, so the model's fair value moved -0.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $82.88 to $115.63. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices from 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium, covering input completeness, comparable companies and their agreement, and the spread of outcomes. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
Etsy scores 49 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, measured against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC at 121.1% against a peer median of 15.5%. Capital discipline scores 86, with net buybacks at 13.9% of market value against a peer median of 0.9%. The comparable companies are Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA), GameStop Corp. (GME), DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI), Five Below, Inc. (FIVE), Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) and Tractor Supply Company (TSCO).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ETSY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Etsy's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ETSY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.7% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 ETSY moved 7.1% in one session, against the 3.3% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ETSY's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ETSY
How does ETSY score on business quality?
Etsy's overall quality score is 49 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 121.1%ROIC | 15.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | 0.57xFCF / net income | 1.77x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 23 | 2.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 86 | 13.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 40 | 4.99xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.23x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 14 | 13.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.4 pts |
How does ETSY compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Etsy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHWY Chewy, Inc. | $23.00 | $21.82 | -5.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | $514.53 | $616.05 | +19.7% | Undervalued |
| GME GameStop Corp. | $24.17 | $24.86 | +2.9% | Fairly valued |
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | $141.07 | $151.65 | +7.5% | Fairly valued |
| BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $22.08 | $25.43 | +15.2% | Undervalued |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $241.26 | $234.83 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
| ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | $67.81 | $66.85 | -1.4% | Fairly valued |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $36.61 | $32.62 | -10.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ETSY, the peer-implied price, is $121.46 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Etsy at a glance
Etsy, Inc. oversees online retail platforms designed to link independent merchants with a global customer base. Its primary marketplace is dedicated to unique and handcrafted items, while its Depop division focuses on the resale of apparel.
- Market value
- $7.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- 0.77
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ETSY was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Etsy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ETSY was $97.11. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $96.64, a change of -0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Etsy's valuation
Is Etsy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ETSY reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $96.64 a share against a last close of $91.53, a gap of +5.6%.
What is ETSY's fair value?
$96.64 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $68.77 to $128.85.
What price range does the model give ETSY?
$77.04 to $113.11 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Etsy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ETSY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.5% around the report of 19 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ETSY is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ETSY
The model holds no idea open on ETSY today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ETSY with their outcomes. A free account is enough.