NYSE: CL · Household & Personal Products
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Colgate-Palmolive (CL) at $90.10 a share. The stock last closed at $84.26, which puts the model's fair value 6.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Colgate-Palmolive Company.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Colgate-Palmolive Company and its affiliated entities are engaged in the production and distribution of a diverse range of consumer goods, operating globally.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $90.10 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $91.55, so the fair value moved -1.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $78.92 to $93.92, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and this range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The business scored 78 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Its profitability score was 100, with ROIC at 45.3% against a peer median of 19.6%. The model compares it with The Estée Lauder Companies Inc., Kenvue Inc., Kimberly-Clark Corporation, Church & Dwight Co., Inc., The Procter & Gamble Company, The Clorox Company, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., and Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the median move was 2.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CL?
The calibrated range for CL over 63 trading days is $78.92 to $93.92. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CL's own options imply (25% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $74.97 to $106.68. In 62% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CL score on business quality?
Colgate-Palmolive's overall quality score is 78 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 45.3%ROIC | 19.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 91 | 1.89xFCF / net income | 0.99x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 50 | 1.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 73 | 1.9%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 62 | 1.69xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.13x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 66 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does CL compare with similar companies?
The companies in household & personal products closest to Colgate-Palmolive in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $91.97 | $92.30 | +0.4% | Fairly valued |
| KVUE Kenvue Inc. | $17.20 | $17.85 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation | $94.36 | $105.96 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | $94.31 | $87.71 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| PG The Procter & Gamble Company | $144.91 | $139.61 | -3.7% | Fairly valued |
| CLX The Clorox Company | $80.41 | $84.29 | +4.8% | Fairly valued |
| ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | $104.68 | $100.16 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| REYN Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. | $22.32 | $23.01 | +3.1% | Fairly valued |
All household & personal products stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Colgate-Palmolive's next earnings report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.1% over one month.
How CL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | -1.9% |
| 1 May 2026 | +2.2% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | +7.8% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | -2.0% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | -0.6% |
| 25 Apr 2025 | -1.9% |
| 31 Jan 2025 | -4.2% |
| 25 Oct 2024 | -4.0% |
Colgate-Palmolive at a glance
Operating globally, Colgate-Palmolive Company and its affiliated entities are engaged in the production and distribution of a diverse range of consumer goods.
- Market value
- $67.4B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Household & Personal Products
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $21.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- -0.26
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Colgate-Palmolive on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CL was $91.55. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $90.10, a change of -1.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Colgate-Palmolive's valuation
Is Colgate-Palmolive stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CL reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $90.10 a share against a last close of $84.26, a gap of +6.9%.
What is CL's fair value?
$90.10 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $74.97 to $106.68.
What price range does the model give CL?
$78.92 to $93.92 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Colgate-Palmolive report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.8% around the report of 30 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CL is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.