NYSE: CHD · Household & Personal Products
Church & Dwight (CHD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Church & Dwight (CHD) at $87.71 a share. The stock last closed at $94.31, which puts the model's fair value 7.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is a company dedicated to the creation, production, and marketing of a diverse portfolio encompassing household, personal care, and specialized industrial goods.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $87.71 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $89.67, so the fair value moved -2.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $73.18 to $106.33, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's evidence grade for the valuation is Medium.
The overall quality score for the business is 52 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 31, with ROIC at 13.0% against a peer median of 22.4%, and its earnings quality score is 70, with FCF / net income at 1.50x against a peer median of 0.99x. The model compares Church & Dwight Co., Inc. with Kimberly-Clark Corporation, Kenvue Inc., The Estée Lauder Companies Inc., The Clorox Company, Colgate-Palmolive Company, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., Reynolds Consumer Products Inc., and Inter Parfums, Inc. The median move around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CHD?
The calibrated range for CHD over 63 trading days is $73.18 to $106.33. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $72.34 to $104.87. In 36% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CHD score on business quality?
Church & Dwight's overall quality score is 52 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 31 | 13.0%ROIC | 22.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 70 | 1.50xFCF / net income | 0.99x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 42 | 1.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 97 | 2.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 63 | 1.78xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.13x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 46 | 2.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does CHD compare with similar companies?
The companies in household & personal products closest to Church & Dwight in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation | $94.36 | $105.96 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| KVUE Kenvue Inc. | $17.20 | $17.85 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| EL The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $91.97 | $92.30 | +0.4% | Fairly valued |
| CLX The Clorox Company | $80.41 | $84.29 | +4.8% | Fairly valued |
| CL Colgate-Palmolive Company | $84.26 | $90.10 | +6.9% | Fairly valued |
| ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | $104.68 | $100.16 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| REYN Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. | $22.32 | $23.01 | +3.1% | Fairly valued |
| IPAR Inter Parfums, Inc. | $113.95 | $122.97 | +7.9% | Fairly valued |
All household & personal products stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CHD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Church & Dwight's next earnings report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How CHD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | +2.4% |
| 1 May 2026 | -1.1% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | +5.9% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | +5.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | -2.4% |
| 1 May 2025 | -6.4% |
| 31 Jan 2025 | -0.6% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | +3.1% |
Church & Dwight at a glance
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is a company dedicated to the creation, production, and marketing of a diverse portfolio encompassing household, personal care, and specialized industrial goods.
- Market value
- $22.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Household & Personal Products
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- -0.15
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Church & Dwight on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CHD was $89.67. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $87.71, a change of -2.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Church & Dwight's valuation
Is Church & Dwight stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CHD reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $87.71 a share against a last close of $94.31, a gap of -7.0%.
What is CHD's fair value?
$87.71 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $72.34 to $104.87.
What price range does the model give CHD?
$73.18 to $106.33 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Church & Dwight report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CHD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.4% around the report of 1 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CHD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.