NYSE: MLM · Construction Materials
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) at $398.73 a share. The stock last closed at $482.27, which puts the model's fair value 17.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. functions as a company specializing in natural resource-derived building materials.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $398.73 a share for Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. on 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved +3.8% since the previous run, which gave $384.01 on 26 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $334.53 to $486.18, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score for the business is 33 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), Masco Corporation (MAS), Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL), Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS), and Owens Corning (OC). The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 1.8%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MLM?
The calibrated range for MLM over 63 trading days is $334.53 to $486.18. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $283.69 to $549.49. In 31% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MLM score on business quality?
Martin Marietta Materials's overall quality score is 33 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 38 | 6.5%ROIC | 8.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 10 | 0.33xFCF / net income | 0.91x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 50 | 0.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.7%Net buybacks / market value | 0.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 29 | 2.80xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.69x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 17 | 4.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.1 pts |
How does MLM compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Martin Marietta Materials in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMC Vulcan Materials Company | $243.06 | $231.20 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| CRH CRH plc | $81.94 | $92.27 | +12.6% | Data under review |
| MAS Masco Corporation | $68.36 | $71.71 | +4.9% | Fairly valued |
| CSL Carlisle Companies Incorporated | $329.34 | $329.36 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $127.27 | $125.98 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| OC Owens Corning | $118.36 | $132.22 | +11.7% | Fairly valued |
| JCI Johnson Controls International plc | $156.24 | $149.32 | -4.4% | Low evidence grade |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | $173.09 | $173.62 | +0.3% | Low evidence grade |
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does MLM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Martin Marietta Materials's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MLM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -7.8% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +0.3% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | -6.8% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -1.4% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +2.2% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +3.6% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +0.5% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +1.4% |
Martin Marietta Materials at a glance
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. functions as a company specializing in natural resource-derived building materials.
- Market value
- $29.1B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.64
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Martin Marietta Materials on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MLM was $384.01. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $398.73, a change of +3.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Martin Marietta Materials's valuation
Is Martin Marietta Materials stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MLM reads as Overvalued as of 1 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $398.73 a share against a last close of $482.27, a gap of -17.3%.
What is MLM's fair value?
$398.73 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $283.69 to $549.49.
What price range does the model give MLM?
$334.53 to $486.18 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Martin Marietta Materials report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MLM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.8% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MLM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.