NASDAQ: WBD · Entertainment
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) at $27.62 a share. The stock last closed at $30.94, which puts the model's fair value 10.7% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. operates as a prominent global media and entertainment conglomerate. Its operations are structured across three key divisions: Studios, Network, and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC).
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $27.62 a share on 26 Sep 2026. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $24.80, a move of +11.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $27.46 to $38.13, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence behind this valuation is graded as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score is 37 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., The Walt Disney Company, Fox Corporation, Fox Corporation, Netflix, Inc., and Warner Music Group Corp. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from +9.5% to -14.7%, with a median size of 4.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give WBD?
The calibrated range for WBD over 63 trading days is $27.46 to $38.13. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that WBD's own options imply (46% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $13.09 to $49.98. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does WBD score on business quality?
Warner Bros. Discovery's overall quality score is 37 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 38 | 2.6%ROIC | 9.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 70 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 23 | -5.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 15.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 41 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 7 | 4.74xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.53x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 19 | 9.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.2 pts |
How does WBD compare with similar companies?
The companies in entertainment closest to Warner Bros. Discovery in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $168.77 | $197.01 | +16.7% | Undervalued |
| DIS The Walt Disney Company | $102.19 | $137.53 | +34.6% | Undervalued |
| FOXA Fox Corporation | $62.28 | $64.66 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| FOX Fox Corporation | $55.89 | $59.40 | +6.3% | Fairly valued |
| NFLX Netflix, Inc. | $67.06 | $92.32 | +37.7% | Undervalued |
| WMG Warner Music Group Corp. | $26.82 | $32.17 | +19.9% | Undervalued |
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $175.58 | $212.73 | +21.2% | Low evidence grade |
| PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $9.50 | $8.80 | -7.4% | Low evidence grade |
When does WBD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Warner Bros. Discovery's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
On 2 Oct 2026, WBD's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 13.4% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
How WBD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +3.1% |
| 6 May 2026 | -0.4% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | -2.5% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -0.4% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -14.7% |
| 8 May 2025 | +6.0% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +9.1% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +9.5% |
Warner Bros. Discovery at a glance
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. operates as a prominent global media and entertainment conglomerate. Its operations are structured across three key divisions: Studios, Network, and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC).
- Market value
- $77.4B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $36.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -3.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.51
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Warner Bros. Discovery on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for WBD was $24.80. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $27.62, a change of +11.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Warner Bros. Discovery's valuation
Is Warner Bros. Discovery stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts WBD's fair value at $27.62 a share against a last close of $30.94, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is WBD's fair value?
$27.62 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $13.09 to $49.98.
What price range does the model give WBD?
$27.46 to $38.13 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Warner Bros. Discovery report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WBD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.7% around the report of 7 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WBD is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.