NASDAQ: ASO · Specialty Retail
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) at $66.08 a share. The stock last closed at $48.73, which puts the model's fair value 35.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a significant retailer of sporting goods and outdoor recreational products throughout the United States.
On 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $66.08 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +0.7% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $65.65. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $43.75 to $58.83, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 64 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability scored 90, with ROIC 12.0% compared to a peer median of 8.3%. Earnings quality scored 33, with FCF / net income at 0.84x compared to a peer median of 1.15x. The model compared it with Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI), Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH), Etsy, Inc. (ETSY), and Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 9.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ASO?
The calibrated range for ASO over 63 trading days is $43.75 to $58.83. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ASO's own options imply (42% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $46.37 to $88.91. In 76% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ASO score on business quality?
Academy Sports and Outdoors's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 90 | 12.0%ROIC | 8.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 33 | 0.84xFCF / net income | 1.15x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 35 | 2.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 91 | 9.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 74 | 2.31xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.77x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does ASO compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Academy Sports and Outdoors in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $16.06 | $22.84 | +42.2% | Undervalued |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | $38.68 | $42.39 | +9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| RH Rh | $120.46 | $85.01 | -29.4% | Low evidence grade |
| SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | $16.24 | $21.85 | +34.5% | Undervalued |
| ETSY Etsy, Inc. | $72.77 | $80.25 | +10.3% | Fairly valued |
| LQDT Liquidity Services, Inc. | $43.23 | $44.36 | +2.6% | Fairly valued |
| EYE National Vision Holdings, Inc. | $16.40 | $15.00 | -8.5% | Low evidence grade |
| CHWY Chewy, Inc. | $18.17 | $19.78 | +8.9% | Low evidence grade |
When does ASO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Academy Sports and Outdoors's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ASO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.0% over one month.
How ASO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026 | +21.3% |
| 9 Jun 2026 | -3.5% |
| 17 Mar 2026 | -10.2% |
| 9 Dec 2025 | +12.6% |
| 2 Sep 2025 | -7.1% |
| 10 Jun 2025 | +10.2% |
| 20 Mar 2025 | -0.7% |
| 10 Dec 2024 | +8.2% |
Academy Sports and Outdoors at a glance
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a significant retailer of sporting goods and outdoor recreational products throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $3.0B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.83
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Academy Sports and Outdoors on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ASO was $65.65. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $66.08, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Academy Sports and Outdoors's valuation
Is Academy Sports and Outdoors stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ASO reads as Undervalued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $66.08 a share against a last close of $48.73, a gap of +35.6%.
What is ASO's fair value?
$66.08 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $46.37 to $88.91.
What price range does the model give ASO?
$43.75 to $58.83 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Academy Sports and Outdoors report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ASO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +21.3% around the report of 9 Sep 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ASO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.