NYSE: CCS · Residential Construction
Century Communities (CCS) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Century Communities (CCS) at $45.92 a share. The stock last closed at $59.87, which puts the model's fair value 23.3% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Century Communities, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Century Communities, Inc. designs, builds, markets, and sells single-family homes, encompassing both attached and detached structures. It is a residential housing company.
Faircurve's model valued Century Communities, Inc. on 3 Oct 2026 at a fair value of $45.92 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -4.1% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $47.89. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $38.31 to $55.67, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The business has an overall quality score of 31 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with KB Home (KBH), Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK), M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO), Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH), Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO), and Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports include +8.6% on 22 Jul 2026 and -7.1% on 22 Apr 2026, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 5.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CCS?
The calibrated range for CCS over 63 trading days is $38.31 to $55.67. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 39% of the time over 63 trading days, and 59% ended above it; the typical move was −0.5%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $16.46 to $85.47. In 37% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CCS score on business quality?
Century Communities's overall quality score is 31 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 23 | 3.1%ROIC | 6.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 45 | 0.37xFCF / net income | 0.67x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 25 | -6.4%Revenue growth, trailing | -4.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 6.0%Net buybacks / market value | 5.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 15 | 9.83xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.54x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 23 | 3.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.3 pts |
How does CCS compare with similar companies?
The companies in residential construction closest to Century Communities in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. | $48.14 | $25.22 | -47.6% | Low evidence grade |
| KBH KB Home | $45.75 | $39.68 | -13.3% | Fairly valued |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | $66.66 | $70.46 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
| DFH Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | $10.75 | $10.13 | -5.8% | Data under review |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $134.76 | $167.41 | +24.2% | Undervalued |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | $63.85 | $59.91 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. | $585.13 | $543.86 | -7.1% | Fairly valued |
| SKY Champion Homes, Inc. | $88.10 | $86.34 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
All residential construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CCS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Century Communities's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 13.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CCS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | +8.6% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | -7.1% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | +0.8% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | +6.5% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | -5.2% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | -13.4% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +2.2% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +1.5% |
Century Communities at a glance
Century Communities, Inc. is a residential housing company that designs, builds, markets, and sells single-family homes, encompassing both attached and detached structures.
- Market value
- $1.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -8.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.64
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Century Communities on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CCS was $47.89. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $45.92, a change of -4.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Century Communities's valuation
Is Century Communities stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CCS's fair value at $45.92 a share against a last close of $59.87, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CCS's fair value?
$45.92 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $16.46 to $85.47.
What price range does the model give CCS?
$38.31 to $55.67 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Century Communities report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CCS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.4% around the report of 23 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CCS is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.