NYSE: DFH ยท Residential Construction
Dream Finders Homes (DFH) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Dream Finders Homes (DFH) at $10.57 a share. The stock last closed at $10.75, which puts the model's fair value 1.7% below the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The latest balance sheet shows far less debt than the quarter before, with no matching repayment.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Dream Finders Homes, Inc.
What price range does the model give DFH?
The calibrated range for DFH over 63 trading days is $8.87 to $12.89. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $6.80 to $15.45. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DFH score on business quality?
Dream Finders Homes's overall quality score is 37 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 25 | 4.0%ROIC | 7.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 6 | -1.10xFCF / net income | 0.67x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 35 | -2.9%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 71 | 5.5%Net buybacks / market value | 4.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 58 | 3.12xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.81x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 83 | 1.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.3 pts |
How does DFH compare with similar companies?
The companies in residential construction closest to Dream Finders Homes in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. | $48.14 | $26.70 | -44.5% | Low evidence grade |
| CCS Century Communities, Inc. | $59.87 | $45.92 | -23.3% | Low evidence grade |
| KBH KB Home | $45.75 | $38.61 | -15.6% | Overvalued |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | $66.66 | $71.20 | +6.8% | Fairly valued |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $134.76 | $173.72 | +28.9% | Undervalued |
| CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. | $585.13 | $532.53 | -9.0% | Fairly valued |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | $63.85 | $61.86 | -3.1% | Fairly valued |
| SKY Champion Homes, Inc. | $88.10 | $87.30 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
All residential construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does DFH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Dream Finders Homes's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How DFH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -17.1% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +7.8% |
| 23 Feb 2026 | -6.3% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -8.4% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -4.7% |
| 6 May 2025 | +0.7% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | +14.1% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -1.3% |
Dream Finders Homes at a glance
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. serves as a holding entity for Dream Finders Holdings LLC, operating primarily in the residential construction industry throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $1.0B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -2.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.88
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Dream Finders Homes on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DFH was $12.01. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $10.57, a change of -12.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Dream Finders Homes's valuation
Is Dream Finders Homes stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts DFH's fair value at $10.57 a share against a last close of $10.75, as of 26 Sep 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is DFH's fair value?
$10.57 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $6.80 to $15.45.
What price range does the model give DFH?
$8.87 to $12.89 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Dream Finders Homes report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DFH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -17.1% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DFH is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.