NYSE: HP · Oil & Gas Drilling
Helmerich & Payne (HP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Helmerich & Payne (HP) at $43.27 a share. The stock last closed at $38.56, which puts the model's fair value 12.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Helmerich & Payne, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, provides specialized drilling services and innovative solutions to businesses involved in the exploration and production of oil and gas.
Faircurve's model valued Helmerich & Payne, Inc. at $43.27 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $45.70, a move of -5.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $36.30 to $52.76, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices from 4,327 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score for the business is 43 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Helmerich & Payne, Inc. with Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc., Valaris Limited, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., Tidewater Inc., Enphase Energy, Inc., and Crescent Energy Company. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports range from +7.5% to -21.2%, with a median size of 6.7%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HP?
The calibrated range for HP over 63 trading days is $36.30 to $52.76. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $25.28 to $67.74. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HP score on business quality?
Helmerich & Payne's overall quality score is 43 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 22 | 5.6%ROIC | 10.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 67 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 66 | 35.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 32 | 2.09xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.15x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 22 | 9.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.0 pts |
How does HP compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas drilling closest to Helmerich & Payne in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. | $11.21 | $12.77 | +13.9% | Fairly valued |
| VAL Valaris Limited | $78.39 | $65.70 | -16.2% | Overvalued |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | $12.78 | $8.46 | -33.8% | Low evidence grade |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | $84.00 | $84.58 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| KNTK Kinetik Holdings Inc. | $52.53 | $44.34 | -15.6% | Low evidence grade |
| TDW Tidewater Inc. | $82.42 | $83.54 | +1.4% | Fairly valued |
| ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | $33.47 | $33.52 | +0.1% | Fairly valued |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | $13.39 | $14.07 | +5.1% | Fairly valued |
When does HP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Helmerich & Payne's next earnings report is scheduled for 16 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 16.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How HP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +7.5% |
| 6 May 2026 | -11.1% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | -2.7% |
| 17 Nov 2025 | -4.6% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +2.4% |
| 7 May 2025 | -21.2% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -14.9% |
| 13 Nov 2024 | -6.0% |
Helmerich & Payne at a glance
Helmerich & Payne, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, provides specialized drilling services and innovative solutions to businesses involved in the exploration and production of oil and gas.
- Market value
- $3.9B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Drilling
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.63
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Helmerich & Payne on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HP was $45.70. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $43.27, a change of -5.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Helmerich & Payne's valuation
Is Helmerich & Payne stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HP reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $43.27 a share against a last close of $38.56, a gap of +12.2%.
What is HP's fair value?
$43.27 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $25.28 to $67.74.
What price range does the model give HP?
$36.30 to $52.76 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Helmerich & Payne report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 16 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -21.2% around the report of 7 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HP is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.