NASDAQ: MARA · Capital Markets
Marathon Digital (MARA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Marathon Digital (MARA) at $5.15 a share. The stock last closed at $11.23, which puts the model's fair value 54.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
MARA Holdings, Inc. is a digital asset technology company, which engages in mining cryptocurrencies with a focus on the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $5.15 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $4.88, so the fair value moved +5.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $9.16 to $16.02, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The model compares the company with CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK) and Evercore Inc. (EVR), each with a fair value of its own on the site. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, include -10.2% on 6 Aug 2026 and +17.7% on 8 May 2025. The median size, ignoring direction, was 5.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MARA?
The calibrated range for MARA over 63 trading days is $9.16 to $16.02. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MARA's own options imply (79% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $2.51 to $8.71. In 7% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MARA compare with similar companies?
The companies in capital markets closest to Marathon Digital in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MC Moelis & Company | $56.32 | $53.68 | -4.7% | Low evidence grade |
| BGC BGC Group, Inc | $11.78 | $12.97 | +10.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $164.14 | $132.11 | -19.5% | Low evidence grade |
| CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. | $12.74 | $12.93 | +1.5% | Fairly valued |
| SNEX StoneX Group Inc. | $65.81 | $59.85 | -9.1% | Low evidence grade |
| JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $45.97 | n/a | n/a | Data under review |
| EVR Evercore Inc. | $261.68 | $325.22 | +24.3% | Undervalued |
| VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. | $58.79 | $60.92 | +3.6% | Data under review |
When does MARA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Marathon Digital's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MARA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 22.7% over one month.
How MARA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -10.2% |
| 11 May 2026 | -1.7% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +4.3% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -3.8% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -3.6% |
| 8 May 2025 | +17.7% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | +5.7% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | -13.2% |
Marathon Digital at a glance
MARA Holdings, Inc. is a digital asset technology company, which engages in mining cryptocurrencies with a focus on the Bitcoin ecosystem.
- Market value
- $4.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Beta to the US market
- 3.44
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Marathon Digital on each part of the business valued on its own and added up (a sum of the parts), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MARA was $4.88. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $5.15, a change of +5.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Marathon Digital's valuation
Is Marathon Digital stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MARA reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $5.15 a share against a last close of $11.23, a gap of -54.1%.
What is MARA's fair value?
$5.15 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $2.51 to $8.71.
What price range does the model give MARA?
$9.16 to $16.02 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Marathon Digital report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MARA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +17.7% around the report of 8 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MARA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.