NYSE: MC · Capital Markets
Moelis (MC) fair value and price range
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Moelis (MC) at $53.68 a share. The stock last closed at $56.32, which puts the model's fair value 4.7% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Moelis & Company.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Moelis & Company operates as a dedicated investment banking advisory firm, offering expert counsel on a wide range of corporate finance matters. It is a Financial Services company in Capital Markets.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $53.68 a share on 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.1% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $54.28. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $45.04 to $65.45, built from the fair value. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
Faircurve's model compares the company with Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA), CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK), and Evercore Inc. (EVR), each with a fair value of its own on the site. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports include -0.3% on 29 Jul 2026 and +9.6% on 23 Apr 2025, with a median size of 4.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MC?
The calibrated range for MC over 63 trading days is $45.04 to $65.45. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $41.75 to $68.68. In 39% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MC compare with similar companies?
The companies in capital markets closest to Moelis in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $11.23 | $5.15 | -54.1% | Overvalued |
| CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. | $12.74 | $12.93 | +1.5% | Fairly valued |
| BGC BGC Group, Inc | $11.78 | $12.97 | +10.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $164.14 | $132.11 | -19.5% | Low evidence grade |
| SNEX StoneX Group Inc. | $65.81 | $59.85 | -9.1% | Low evidence grade |
| JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $45.97 | n/a | n/a | Data under review |
| EVR Evercore Inc. | $261.68 | $325.22 | +24.3% | Undervalued |
| VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. | $58.79 | $60.92 | +3.6% | Data under review |
When does MC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Moelis's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 12.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -0.3% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -6.6% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +3.3% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -9.9% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -0.8% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +9.6% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | +4.6% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -4.9% |
Moelis at a glance
Moelis & Company operates as a dedicated investment banking advisory firm, offering expert counsel on a wide range of corporate finance matters.
- Market value
- $4.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +14.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 1.46
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Moelis on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MC was $54.28. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $53.68, a change of -1.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Moelis's valuation
Is Moelis stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MC's fair value at $53.68 a share against a last close of $56.32, as of 29 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is MC's fair value?
$53.68 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $41.75 to $68.68.
What price range does the model give MC?
$45.04 to $65.45 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Moelis report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -9.9% around the report of 29 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MC is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.