NASDAQ: BGC · Capital Markets
BGC Group (BGC) fair value and price range
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values BGC Group (BGC) at $12.97 a share. The stock last closed at $11.78, which puts the model's fair value 10.1% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. BGC Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
BGC Group, Inc. is a global financial services enterprise that specializes in both brokerage and advanced technology solutions, operating across the United States and internationally.
On 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $12.97 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $12.99, so the fair value moved -0.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $10.88 to $15.81, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
Faircurve's model compares BGC Group, Inc. with Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA), CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK), and Evercore Inc. (EVR). The stock’s moves around its last 8 earnings reports were: 30 Jul 2026 -2.1%, 7 May 2026 +4.6%, 12 Feb 2026 +5.7%, 6 Nov 2025 +1.4%, 31 Jul 2025 -2.5%, 7 May 2025 +10.6%, 14 Feb 2025 +1.4%, 31 Oct 2024 +3.9%. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 3.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BGC?
The calibrated range for BGC over 63 trading days is $10.88 to $15.81. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $10.07 to $16.40. In 65% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BGC compare with similar companies?
The companies in capital markets closest to BGC Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $164.14 | $132.11 | -19.5% | Low evidence grade |
| MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $11.23 | $5.15 | -54.1% | Overvalued |
| MC Moelis & Company | $56.32 | $53.68 | -4.7% | Low evidence grade |
| SNEX StoneX Group Inc. | $65.81 | $59.85 | -9.1% | Low evidence grade |
| CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. | $12.74 | $12.93 | +1.5% | Fairly valued |
| JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $45.97 | n/a | n/a | Data under review |
| EVR Evercore Inc. | $261.68 | $325.22 | +24.3% | Undervalued |
| VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. | $58.79 | $60.92 | +3.6% | Data under review |
When does BGC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
BGC Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 16.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How BGC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -2.1% |
| 7 May 2026 | +4.6% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | +5.7% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +1.4% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -2.5% |
| 7 May 2025 | +10.6% |
| 14 Feb 2025 | +1.4% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +3.9% |
BGC Group at a glance
BGC Group, Inc. is a global financial services enterprise that specializes in both brokerage and advanced technology solutions, operating across the United States and internationally.
- Market value
- $5.6B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +15.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.32
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices BGC Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BGC was $12.99. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $12.97, a change of -0.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about BGC Group's valuation
Is BGC Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts BGC's fair value at $12.97 a share against a last close of $11.78, as of 2 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is BGC's fair value?
$12.97 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $10.07 to $16.40.
What price range does the model give BGC?
$10.88 to $15.81 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does BGC Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BGC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.6% around the report of 7 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BGC is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.