NYSE: SF · Capital Markets
Stifel Financial (SF) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Stifel Financial (SF) at $79.00 a share. The stock last closed at $71.85, which puts the model's fair value 10.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Stifel Financial Corp.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $79.00, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $71.85 is 10.0% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 27 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give SF?
The calibrated range for SF over 63 trading days is $64.91 to $81.40. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SF's own options imply (34% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $70.28 to $88.04. In 90% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Stifel Financial Corp. is a bank holding company. It operates through Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, which provides retail and institutional wealth management and investment banking services to individuals, corporations, municipalities and institutions.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $79.00 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $79.40, so the fair value moved -0.5%. The run data gives no reason for the change. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $63.99 to $94.36. It is built from the fair value, as there is no live options data for the stock, and it is calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High. That grade looks at the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, the width of the range of outcomes, and whether the valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
This run has no quality score for the business, so none is reported here. The model compares Stifel with two companies that each have a fair value of their own on the site: StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) and MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX). Six other comparable companies have no verdict on this date: Evercore Inc. (EVR), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF), BGC Group, Inc (BGC), Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT), Moelis & Company (MC) and Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does SF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Stifel Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 9.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SF's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.9% over one month.
Around its last 4 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across SF's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
Earlier reports are left out: the options record is on a different share basis.
How does SF compare with similar companies?
The companies in capital markets closest to Stifel Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVR Evercore Inc. | $290.13 | n/a | n/a | Data under review |
| JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $48.60 | $51.95 | +6.9% | Low evidence grade |
| SNEX StoneX Group Inc. | $53.62 | $64.60 | +20.5% | Undervalued |
| MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $165.54 | $189.27 | +14.3% | Fairly valued |
| BGC BGC Group, Inc | $10.46 | $21.81 | +108.5% | Gap wider than 60% |
| VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. | $53.95 | $63.88 | +18.4% | Data under review |
| MC Moelis & Company | $58.38 | $62.20 | +6.5% | Low evidence grade |
| MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $5.88 | $4.53 | -22.9% | Low evidence grade |
Stifel Financial at a glance
Stifel Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated that provides retail and institutional wealth management, and investment banking services to individual, corporations, municipalities, and institutions in.
- Market value
- $10.0B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -6.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.95
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. SF was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Stifel Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for SF was $79.40. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $79.00, a change of -0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Stifel Financial's valuation
Is Stifel Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SF reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $79.00 a share against a last close of $71.85, a gap of +10.0%.
What is SF's fair value?
$79.00 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $70.28 to $88.04.
What price range does the model give SF?
$64.91 to $81.40 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Stifel Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.5% around the report of 22 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SF is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SF
The model holds no idea open on SF today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SF with their outcomes. A free account is enough.