NASDAQ: MNRO · Auto Parts
Monro (MNRO) fair value and price range
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Monro (MNRO) at $12.81 a share. The stock last closed at $14.18, which puts the model's fair value 9.7% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Monro Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Monro, Inc. engages in the operation of retail tire and automotive repair stores in the United States.
On 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $12.81 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $11.61, so the fair value moved +10.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $10.75 to $15.62, built from the fair value. This type of range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score for Monro Inc. is 47 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 29, with ROIC at 2.4% against a peer median of 4.0%. Earnings quality is 66, with FCF / net income at 5.18x. Growth quality is 37, with trailing revenue growth at -3.2% against a peer median of 0.4%. Capital discipline is 68, with net buybacks / market value at 0.0%. The balance sheet score is 58, with net debt / EBITDA at 6.90x against a peer median of 8.30x. Stability is 57, with 5y EBITDA margin downside volatility at 2.0 pts. Faircurve's model compares it with Standard Motor Products, Inc., Gentherm Incorporated, XPEL, Inc., PHINIA Inc., and Visteon Corporation. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 8.9%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MNRO?
The calibrated range for MNRO over 63 trading days is $10.75 to $15.62. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $4.90 to $23.02. In 46% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MNRO score on business quality?
Monro's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 29 | 2.4%ROIC | 4.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 66 | 5.18xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 37 | -3.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 68 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 58 | 6.90xNet debt / EBITDA | 8.30x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 57 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does MNRO compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto parts closest to Monro in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOXF Fox Factory Holding Corp. | $18.65 | $16.67 | -10.6% | Low evidence grade |
| SMP Standard Motor Products, Inc. | $37.52 | $40.51 | +8.0% | Fairly valued |
| THRM Gentherm Incorporated | $31.30 | $37.37 | +19.4% | Undervalued |
| XPEL XPEL, Inc. | $44.97 | $41.54 | -7.6% | Fairly valued |
| ADNT Adient plc | $17.31 | $28.41 | +64.1% | Gap wider than 60% |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | $4.84 | $5.78 | +19.4% | Low evidence grade |
| PHIN PHINIA Inc. | $59.78 | $83.27 | +39.3% | Undervalued |
| VC Visteon Corporation | $88.77 | $113.16 | +27.5% | Undervalued |
When does MNRO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Monro's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 28 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 25.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 52 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MNRO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -21.8% |
| 27 May 2026 | +0.4% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -5.2% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -18.8% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -13.6% |
| 28 May 2025 | -6.8% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | -10.9% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +2.3% |
Monro at a glance
Monro, Inc. engages in the operation of retail tire and automotive repair stores in the United States.
- Market value
- $430M
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 1.41
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Monro on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MNRO was $11.61. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $12.81, a change of +10.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Monro's valuation
Is Monro stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MNRO's fair value at $12.81 a share against a last close of $14.18, as of 28 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is MNRO's fair value?
$12.81 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $4.90 to $23.02.
What price range does the model give MNRO?
$10.75 to $15.62 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Monro report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MNRO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -21.8% around the report of 29 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MNRO is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.