NYSE: SM · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
SM Energy (SM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values SM Energy (SM) at $30.66 a share. The stock last closed at $35.24, which puts the model's fair value 13.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. SM Energy Company.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
SM Energy Company is an independent firm dedicated to the exploration, development, acquisition, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Its operations are exclusively concentrated within the state of Texas.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $30.66 a share on 26 Sep 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved -7.1% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $33.02. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $25.72 to $37.38, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score for SM Energy Company is 41 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD), Range Resources Corporation (RRC), Matador Resources Company (MTDR), Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY), Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR), and California Resources Corp (CRC). The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 6.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SM?
The calibrated range for SM over 63 trading days is $25.72 to $37.38. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $18.38 to $45.82. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SM score on business quality?
SM Energy's overall quality score is 41 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 42 | 7.7%ROIC | 9.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 28 | -0.04xFCF / net income | 1.07x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 74 | 18.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 21 | 1.2%Net buybacks / market value | 2.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 33 | 1.80xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.30x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 11.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.3 pts |
How does SM compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to SM Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | $137.01 | $191.26 | +39.6% | Undervalued |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | $38.23 | $37.25 | -2.6% | Fairly valued |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | $53.50 | $73.80 | +37.9% | Undervalued |
| AR Antero Resources Corporation | $34.08 | $30.75 | -9.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | $24.07 | $26.20 | +8.8% | Fairly valued |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | $37.66 | $37.11 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $31.50 | $34.60 | +9.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CRC California Resources Corp | $52.43 | $50.02 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does SM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
SM Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How SM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -7.6% |
| 6 May 2026 | -6.8% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -5.9% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -7.8% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -3.8% |
| 1 May 2025 | +11.9% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | -3.9% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -5.2% |
SM Energy at a glance
SM Energy Company is an independent firm dedicated to the exploration, development, acquisition, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Its operations are exclusively concentrated within the state of Texas.
- Market value
- $8.1B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +140.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- -0.36
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices SM Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SM was $33.02. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $30.66, a change of -7.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about SM Energy's valuation
Is SM Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SM reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $30.66 a share against a last close of $35.24, a gap of -13.0%.
What is SM's fair value?
$30.66 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $18.38 to $45.82.
What price range does the model give SM?
$25.72 to $37.38 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does SM Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.9% around the report of 1 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.