NYSE: AR · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Antero Resources (AR) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Antero Resources (AR) at $36.31 a share. The stock last closed at $36.38, which puts the model's fair value 0.2% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Antero Resources Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $35.46 to $36.31 (+2.4%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $36.38 is level with it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 10 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AR?
The calibrated range for AR over 63 trading days is $32.29 to $42.13. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AR's own options imply (40% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $20.84 to $57.35. In 40% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Antero Resources Corporation is an independent energy company working across the United States. It identifies, acquires, develops and extracts natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil deposits.
Faircurve's model gives a fair value of $36.31 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $35.46, so the fair value moved +2.4%. The model says the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $33.42 to $43.02. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as low, so no verdict is shown. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Antero Resources scores 52 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite against comparable companies. Growth quality is the highest factor at 74, with trailing revenue growth of 21.7% against a peer median of 12.9%. Earnings quality is the lowest at 31, with free cash flow to net income of 0.93x against a peer median of 1.01x. The model compares the company with Range Resources Corporation, SM Energy Company, Chord Energy Corporation, Ovintiv Inc., Expand Energy Corporation and Permian Resources Corporation.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does AR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Antero Resources's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.6% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 AR moved 6.3% in one session, against the 2.5% a day that options had priced: 2.6 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AR's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in AR
How does AR score on business quality?
Antero Resources's overall quality score is 52 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 48 | 8.6%ROIC | 9.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 31 | 0.93xFCF / net income | 1.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 74 | 21.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 68 | 0.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 45 | 1.66xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.22x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 7.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.4 pts |
How does AR compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Antero Resources in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | $50.19 | $49.37 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| SM SM Energy Company | $29.63 | $36.29 | +22.5% | Undervalued |
| APA APA Corporation | $43.48 | $73.57 | +69.2% | Gap wider than 60% |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | $132.45 | $200.83 | +51.6% | Undervalued |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | $60.91 | $90.81 | +49.1% | Undervalued |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $85.34 | $115.56 | +35.4% | Undervalued |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | $21.34 | $30.87 | +44.7% | Undervalued |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | $49.87 | $85.78 | +72.0% | Gap wider than 60% |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for AR, the peer-implied price, is $28.23 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Antero Resources at a glance
Antero Resources Corporation functions as an independent energy enterprise, primarily engaged in identifying, acquiring, developing, and extracting natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil deposits throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $12.9B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +32.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- -0.16
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Antero Resources on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AR was $35.46. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $36.31, a change of +2.4%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Antero Resources's valuation
Is Antero Resources stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AR's fair value at $36.31 a share against a last close of $36.38, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is AR's fair value?
$36.31 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $20.84 to $57.35.
What price range does the model give AR?
$32.29 to $42.13 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Antero Resources report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.2% around the report of 30 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AR is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on AR
The model holds no idea open on AR today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on AR with their outcomes. A free account is enough.