NYSE: PII · Recreational Vehicles
Polaris (PII) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Polaris (PII) at $53.00 a share. The stock last closed at $53.71, which puts the model's fair value 1.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Polaris Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
Polaris Inc. is a global enterprise specialising in the design, engineering, production, and distribution of powersports vehicles. Its business is structured across three primary segments: Off-Road, On-Road, and Marine.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $53.00 a share for Polaris Inc. on 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $53.88, so the fair value moved -1.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $44.47 to $64.62, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, holding the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
Polaris Inc. scores an overall quality of 36 out of 100 against comparable companies, with profitability at 11, earnings quality at 78, growth quality at 49, capital discipline at 44, balance sheet at 0, and stability at 22. The model compares Polaris Inc. with Thor Industries, Inc. and LCI Industries. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock's median move, ignoring direction, was 8.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PII?
The calibrated range for PII over 63 trading days is $44.47 to $64.62. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $34.21 to $76.05. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PII score on business quality?
Polaris's overall quality score is 36 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 11 | 2.7%ROIC | 8.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 78 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 49 | -0.3%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 4.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 0 | 14.20xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.83x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 22 | 4.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does PII compare with similar companies?
The companies in recreational vehicles closest to Polaris in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THO Thor Industries, Inc. | $69.55 | $66.22 | -4.8% | Fairly valued |
| BC Brunswick Corporation | $65.43 | $74.94 | +14.5% | Low evidence grade |
| LCII LCI Industries | $82.81 | $92.41 | +11.6% | Fairly valued |
| WGO Winnebago Industries, Inc. | $26.30 | $27.04 | +2.8% | Low evidence grade |
All recreational vehicles stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PII report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Polaris's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How PII moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | -9.9% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | +10.7% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | -6.0% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -5.0% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | +7.2% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +7.1% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -13.7% |
| 22 Oct 2024 | -13.1% |
Polaris at a glance
Polaris Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the design, engineering, production, and distribution of powersports vehicles. Its business is structured across three primary segments: Off-Road, On-Road, and Marine.
- Market value
- $3.0B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Recreational Vehicles
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.23
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Polaris on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PII was $53.88. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $53.00, a change of -1.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Polaris's valuation
Is Polaris stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PII reads as Fairly valued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $53.00 a share against a last close of $53.71, a gap of -1.3%.
What is PII's fair value?
$53.00 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $34.21 to $76.05.
What price range does the model give PII?
$44.47 to $64.62 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Polaris report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PII moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.7% around the report of 28 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PII is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.