NYSE: THO · Recreational Vehicles
Thor Industries (THO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Thor Industries (THO) at $68.74 a share. The stock last closed at $82.33, which puts the model's fair value 16.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Thor Industries, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $65.78 to $68.74 (+4.5%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $82.33 is 16.5% above it: Overvalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 2 Dec 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 14% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give THO?
The calibrated range for THO over 63 trading days is $70.96 to $98.82. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that THO's own options imply (50% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $44.38 to $103.13. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) designs, produces and sells recreational vehicles (RVs), along with related parts and accessories. Its operations span the United States, Canada and Europe.
The model's fair value for Thor is $68.74 a share, as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $65.78, so the fair value moved +4.5%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $70.96 to $98.82, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium, which looks at input completeness, comparable agreement and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score for Thor is 31 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 0, with ROIC at 3.1% against a peer median of 9.2%. Earnings quality scores 9, with FCF / net income at 0.95x against a peer median of 1.21x. The balance sheet scores 84, with net debt / EBITDA at 0.71x against a peer median of 2.36x. The model compares Thor with Polaris Inc. (PII), Brunswick Corporation (BC) and LCI Industries (LCII).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does THO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Thor Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. THO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.4% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 THO moved 9.4% in one session, against the 3.0% a day that options had priced: 3.1 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across THO's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in THO
How does THO score on business quality?
Thor Industries's overall quality score is 31 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 3.1%ROIC | 9.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 9 | 0.95xFCF / net income | 1.21x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 41 | 0.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 3.0%Net buybacks / market value | 4.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 84 | 0.71xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.36x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 75 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does THO compare with similar companies?
The companies in recreational vehicles closest to Thor Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PII Polaris Inc. | $64.30 | $59.06 | -8.1% | Fairly valued |
| BC Brunswick Corporation | $78.89 | $90.62 | +14.9% | Fairly valued |
| LCII LCI Industries | $102.51 | $105.34 | +2.8% | Fairly valued |
| WGO Winnebago Industries, Inc. | $33.17 | $31.98 | -3.6% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for THO, the peer-implied price, is $61.35 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All recreational vehicles stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Thor Industries at a glance
Thor Industries, Inc. specializes in the design, production, and sale of recreational vehicles (RVs), complemented by a range of related parts and accessories. Its operations span the United States, Canada, and Europe.
- Market value
- $3.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Recreational Vehicles
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 0.69
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. THO was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Thor Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for THO was $65.78. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $68.74, a change of +4.5%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Thor Industries's valuation
Is Thor Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, THO reads as Overvalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $68.74 a share against a last close of $82.33, a gap of -16.5%.
What is THO's fair value?
$68.74 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $44.38 to $103.13.
What price range does the model give THO?
$70.96 to $98.82 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Thor Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has THO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -9.2% around the report of 5 Mar 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for THO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on THO
The model holds no idea open on THO today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on THO with their outcomes. A free account is enough.