NYSE: WGO · Recreational Vehicles
Winnebago Industries (WGO) fair value and price range
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Winnebago Industries (WGO) at $27.04 a share. The stock last closed at $26.30, which puts the model's fair value 2.8% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Winnebago Industries, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Winnebago Industries, Inc. specializes in the production and sale of recreational vehicles and marine products, primarily catering to the leisure travel and outdoor recreation markets.
On 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $27.04 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $25.96, so the fair value moved +4.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $22.69 to $32.97, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score is 50 out of 100 against comparable companies LCI Industries, Polaris Inc. and Thor Industries, Inc. Profitability scored 34 with ROIC at 3.5% against a peer median of 4.6%, while Earnings quality scored 100 with FCF / net income at 4.69x. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 8.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give WGO?
The calibrated range for WGO over 63 trading days is $22.69 to $32.97. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $10.63 to $52.67. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does WGO score on business quality?
Winnebago Industries's overall quality score is 50 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 34 | 3.5%ROIC | 4.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 4.69xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 21 | -5.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 76 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 48 | 3.28xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.94x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 29 | 3.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does WGO compare with similar companies?
The companies in recreational vehicles closest to Winnebago Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCII LCI Industries | $82.81 | $92.41 | +11.6% | Fairly valued |
| PII Polaris Inc. | $53.71 | $53.00 | -1.3% | Fairly valued |
| THO Thor Industries, Inc. | $69.55 | $66.22 | -4.8% | Fairly valued |
| BC Brunswick Corporation | $65.43 | $74.94 | +14.5% | Low evidence grade |
All recreational vehicles stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does WGO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Winnebago Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 15.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How WGO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | +15.0% |
| 25 Mar 2026 | -6.4% |
| 19 Dec 2025 | +5.2% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | +24.6% |
| 25 Jun 2025 | -8.6% |
| 27 Mar 2025 | 0.0% |
| 20 Dec 2024 | -7.6% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -10.0% |
Winnebago Industries at a glance
Winnebago Industries, Inc. specializes in the production and sale of recreational vehicles (RVs) and marine products, primarily catering to the leisure travel and outdoor recreation markets.
- Market value
- $768M
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Recreational Vehicles
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -2.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 0.71
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Winnebago Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for WGO was $25.96. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $27.04, a change of +4.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Winnebago Industries's valuation
Is Winnebago Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts WGO's fair value at $27.04 a share against a last close of $26.30, as of 28 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is WGO's fair value?
$27.04 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $10.63 to $52.67.
What price range does the model give WGO?
$22.69 to $32.97 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Winnebago Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WGO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +24.6% around the report of 22 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WGO is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.