NASDAQ: PLMR · Property & Casualty Insurance
Palomar Holdings (PLMR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Palomar Holdings (PLMR) at $93.01 a share. The stock last closed at $126.49, which puts the model's fair value 26.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Palomar Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Palomar Holdings, Inc. functions as an insurance holding company dedicated to providing specialized property coverage for both private homeowners and businesses. The company is in Financial Services, Property & Casualty Insurance.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $93.01 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.4% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $94.31. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $78.03 to $113.41, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
Palomar Holdings, Inc. is compared with HCI Group, Inc., Selective Insurance Group, Inc., and Safety Insurance Group, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -1.8% to +13.3%, with a median size of 5.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PLMR?
The calibrated range for PLMR over 63 trading days is $78.03 to $113.41. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $72.62 to $118.99. In 16% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PLMR compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Palomar Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCI HCI Group, Inc. | $184.25 | $256.23 | +39.1% | Undervalued |
| RLI RLI Corp. | $55.94 | $45.60 | -18.5% | Low evidence grade |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $85.59 | $85.01 | -0.7% | Fairly valued |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | $102.27 | $154.87 | +51.4% | Low evidence grade |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation | $45.26 | $42.31 | -6.5% | Low evidence grade |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | $51.55 | $33.07 | -35.8% | Low evidence grade |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | $103.92 | $52.38 | -49.6% | Overvalued |
| KMPR Kemper Corporation | $25.67 | $23.56 | -8.2% | Low evidence grade |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PLMR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Palomar Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How PLMR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -1.8% |
| 6 May 2026 | +1.6% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | -1.7% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +9.7% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | -13.4% |
| 5 May 2025 | +11.8% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +13.3% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | +2.2% |
Palomar Holdings at a glance
Palomar Holdings, Inc. functions as an insurance holding company dedicated to providing specialized property coverage for both private homeowners and businesses.
- Market value
- $3.3B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +198.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- -0.29
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Palomar Holdings on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PLMR was $94.31. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $93.01, a change of -1.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Palomar Holdings's valuation
Is Palomar Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PLMR reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $93.01 a share against a last close of $126.49, a gap of -26.5%.
What is PLMR's fair value?
$93.01 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $72.62 to $118.99.
What price range does the model give PLMR?
$78.03 to $113.41 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Palomar Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PLMR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.4% around the report of 4 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PLMR is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.