NYSE: MCY · Property & Casualty Insurance
Mercury General (MCY) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Mercury General (MCY) at $155.83 a share. The stock last closed at $102.27, which puts the model's fair value 52.4% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Mercury General Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Mercury General Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing personal automobile insurance in the United States. It also writes homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial property, mechanical protection, and umbrella insurance products.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $155.83 a share for Mercury General Corporation on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $154.87, so the fair value moved +0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $130.01 to $188.91, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, holding the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The business quality scores against RLI Corp. (RLI), Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI), Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL), Old Republic International Corporation (ORI), Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR), and American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports were 4 Aug 2026 +2.2%, 5 May 2026 +0.6%, 17 Feb 2026 -6.6%, 4 Nov 2025 +7.2%, 29 Jul 2025 +1.1%, 6 May 2025 +23.4%, 11 Feb 2025 +8.0%, and 29 Oct 2024 +5.9%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 6.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MCY?
The calibrated range for MCY over 63 trading days is $130.01 to $188.91. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +4.4%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $125.45 to $192.33. In 95% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MCY compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Mercury General in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RLI RLI Corp. | $55.94 | $45.83 | -18.1% | Overvalued |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $85.59 | $82.52 | -3.6% | Fairly valued |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $329.72 | $281.13 | -14.7% | Fairly valued |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | $219.43 | $200.45 | -8.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | $38.06 | $42.40 | +11.4% | Fairly valued |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | $126.49 | $93.12 | -26.4% | Overvalued |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $221.09 | $150.96 | -31.7% | Low evidence grade |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $139.10 | $148.23 | +6.6% | Fairly valued |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does MCY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Mercury General's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MCY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +2.2% |
| 5 May 2026 | +0.6% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | -6.6% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +7.2% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | +1.1% |
| 6 May 2025 | +23.4% |
| 11 Feb 2025 | +8.0% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | +5.9% |
Mercury General at a glance
Mercury General Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing personal automobile insurance in the United States. It also writes homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial property, mechanical protection, and umbrella insurance products.
- Market value
- $5.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Mercury General on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MCY was $154.87. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $155.83, a change of +0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Mercury General's valuation
Is Mercury General stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MCY's fair value at $155.83 a share against a last close of $102.27, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is MCY's fair value?
$155.83 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $125.45 to $192.33.
What price range does the model give MCY?
$130.01 to $188.91 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Mercury General report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MCY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.4% around the report of 6 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MCY is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.