NASDAQ: SAFT · Property & Casualty Insurance
Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) at $52.38 a share. The stock last closed at $103.92, which puts the model's fair value 49.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Safety Insurance Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) is a U.S.-based insurance provider offering a diverse range of personal and commercial coverage. It is in Financial Services, Property & Casualty Insurance.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $52.38 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $56.55, so the fair value moved -7.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $43.95 to $63.87, built from the fair value. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as High.
The model compares Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) with HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) and Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR). The stock moved +0.2% around its 5 Aug 2026 earnings report, -2.0% around 6 May 2026, +0.4% around 25 Feb 2026, +2.4% around 3 Nov 2025, +1.4% around 6 Aug 2025, +4.6% around 7 May 2025, -3.9% around 25 Feb 2025, and +12.8% around 5 Nov 2024. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SAFT?
The calibrated range for SAFT over 63 trading days is $43.95 to $63.87. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $40.66 to $66.23. In 1% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SAFT compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Safety Insurance Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMPR Kemper Corporation | $25.67 | $23.56 | -8.2% | Low evidence grade |
| UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. | $54.62 | $49.94 | -8.6% | Low evidence grade |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | $51.55 | $33.07 | -35.8% | Low evidence grade |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation | $45.26 | $42.31 | -6.5% | Low evidence grade |
| HCI HCI Group, Inc. | $184.25 | $256.23 | +39.1% | Undervalued |
| TRUP Trupanion, Inc. | $23.58 | $15.15 | -35.8% | Low evidence grade |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | $126.49 | $93.01 | -26.5% | Overvalued |
| RLI RLI Corp. | $55.94 | $45.60 | -18.5% | Low evidence grade |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does SAFT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Safety Insurance Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How SAFT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +0.2% |
| 6 May 2026 | -2.0% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +0.4% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | +2.4% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +1.4% |
| 7 May 2025 | +4.6% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -3.9% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +12.8% |
Safety Insurance Group at a glance
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) is a U.S.-based insurance provider offering a diverse range of personal and commercial coverage.
- Market value
- $1.5B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- -0.23
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Safety Insurance Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SAFT was $56.55. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $52.38, a change of -7.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Safety Insurance Group's valuation
Is Safety Insurance Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SAFT reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $52.38 a share against a last close of $103.92, a gap of -49.6%.
What is SAFT's fair value?
$52.38 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $40.66 to $66.23.
What price range does the model give SAFT?
$43.95 to $63.87 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Safety Insurance Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SAFT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.8% around the report of 5 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SAFT is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.