NYSE: HCI · Property & Casualty Insurance
HCI Group (HCI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values HCI Group (HCI) at $256.23 a share. The stock last closed at $184.25, which puts the model's fair value 39.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. HCI Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
HCI Group, Inc. is a diversified holding company, headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Faircurve's model on 28 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $256.23 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $266.71, a move of -3.9%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $214.97 to $312.43, built from the fair value since there is no live options data, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The model compares HCI Group, Inc. with Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Palomar Holdings, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from +5.7% to -10.9%, with a median size of 6.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HCI?
The calibrated range for HCI over 63 trading days is $214.97 to $312.43. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $198.59 to $329.36. In 91% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HCI compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to HCI Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation | $45.26 | $42.31 | -6.5% | Low evidence grade |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | $51.55 | $33.07 | -35.8% | Low evidence grade |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | $103.92 | $52.38 | -49.6% | Overvalued |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | $126.49 | $93.01 | -26.5% | Overvalued |
| KMPR Kemper Corporation | $25.67 | $23.56 | -8.2% | Low evidence grade |
| UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. | $54.62 | $49.94 | -8.6% | Low evidence grade |
| TRUP Trupanion, Inc. | $23.58 | $15.15 | -35.8% | Low evidence grade |
| RLI RLI Corp. | $55.94 | $45.60 | -18.5% | Low evidence grade |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does HCI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
HCI Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
On 1 Oct 2026 HCI moved 4.4% in one session, against the 1.8% a day that options had priced: 2.4 times the implied size.
How HCI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +5.7% |
| 6 May 2026 | -1.3% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +8.7% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -10.9% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +0.3% |
| 8 May 2025 | +6.8% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +8.5% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +1.5% |
HCI Group at a glance
Headquartered in Tampa, Florida, HCI Group, Inc., originally established in 2006 as Homeowners Choice, Inc. before its name change in May 2013, is a diversified holding company.
- Market value
- $2.2B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices HCI Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HCI was $266.71. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $256.23, a change of -3.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about HCI Group's valuation
Is HCI Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HCI reads as Undervalued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $256.23 a share against a last close of $184.25, a gap of +39.1%.
What is HCI's fair value?
$256.23 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $198.59 to $329.36.
What price range does the model give HCI?
$214.97 to $312.43 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does HCI Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HCI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -10.9% around the report of 6 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HCI is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.