NYSE: HMN · Property & Casualty Insurance
Horace Mann Educators (HMN) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Horace Mann Educators (HMN) at $39.06 a share. The stock last closed at $45.26, which puts the model's fair value 13.7% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Horace Mann Educators Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Horace Mann Educators Corporation functions as an insurance holding company, conducting its operations through various subsidiaries throughout the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $39.06 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $42.31, and the fair value moved -7.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $32.59 to $47.35, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model graded the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model compares Horace Mann Educators Corporation with Safety Insurance Group, Inc., Palomar Holdings, Inc., and Selective Insurance Group, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports were 5 Aug 2026 +4.1%, 6 May 2026 -1.8%, 3 Feb 2026 -3.7%, 4 Nov 2025 +5.6%, 6 Aug 2025 +3.2%, 6 May 2025 +7.2%, 5 Feb 2025 +7.1%, and 4 Nov 2024 +5.1%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 4.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HMN?
The calibrated range for HMN over 63 trading days is $32.59 to $47.35. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $30.31 to $49.38. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HMN compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Horace Mann Educators in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | $51.55 | $33.33 | -35.3% | Low evidence grade |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | $103.92 | $48.90 | -52.9% | Overvalued |
| KMPR Kemper Corporation | $25.67 | $24.06 | -6.3% | Low evidence grade |
| HCI HCI Group, Inc. | $184.25 | $251.26 | +36.4% | Low evidence grade |
| UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. | $54.62 | $49.77 | -8.9% | Low evidence grade |
| TRUP Trupanion, Inc. | $23.58 | $15.36 | -34.9% | Low evidence grade |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | $126.49 | $93.12 | -26.4% | Overvalued |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $85.59 | $82.52 | -3.6% | Fairly valued |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does HMN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Horace Mann Educators's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How HMN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +4.1% |
| 6 May 2026 | -1.8% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | -3.7% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +5.6% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +3.2% |
| 6 May 2025 | +7.2% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | +7.1% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | +5.1% |
Horace Mann Educators at a glance
Horace Mann Educators Corporation functions as an insurance holding company, conducting its operations through various subsidiaries throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $1.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -21.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- -0.08
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Horace Mann Educators on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HMN was $42.31. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $39.06, a change of -7.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Horace Mann Educators's valuation
Is Horace Mann Educators stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts HMN's fair value at $39.06 a share against a last close of $45.26, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is HMN's fair value?
$39.06 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $30.31 to $49.38.
What price range does the model give HMN?
$32.59 to $47.35 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Horace Mann Educators report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HMN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.2% around the report of 6 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HMN is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.