NYSE: SPG · Retail REITs
Simon Property Group (SPG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Simon Property Group (SPG) at $206.83 a share. The stock last closed at $200.95, which puts the model's fair value 2.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Simon Property Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Simon Property Group, Inc. is an S&P 100 real estate investment trust that specialises in owning and developing shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $206.83 a share on 3 Oct 2026. This fair value blends a cash-flow multiple against comparable companies, a dividend model, and the value of the properties. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $209.08, a move of -1.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $172.56 to $250.74, built from the fair value since there is no live options data. This range is calibrated weekly against realised prices, from 4,809 past valuations refreshed on 3 Oct 2026, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High, based on the dividend record.
The model compares the company with Kimco Realty Corporation, Regency Centers Corporation, Federal Realty Investment Trust, Brixmor Property Group Inc., Agree Realty Corporation, and NNN REIT, Inc. The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports by -1.5%, +1.8%, -1.0%, +3.9%, +5.4%, -1.4%, +3.3%, and +1.8%. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, is 1.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SPG?
The calibrated range for SPG over 63 trading days is $172.56 to $250.74. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own range is $189.11 to $228.89.
How does SPG compare with similar companies?
The companies in retail reits closest to Simon Property Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O Realty Income Corporation | $54.13 | $55.58 | +2.7% | Data under review |
| KIM Kimco Realty Corporation | $22.24 | $21.78 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| REG Regency Centers Corporation | $71.60 | $63.22 | -11.7% | Overvalued |
| FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust | $106.69 | $93.66 | -12.2% | Overvalued |
| BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. | $27.39 | $30.53 | +11.5% | Undervalued |
| ADC Agree Realty Corporation | $65.88 | $51.08 | -22.5% | Overvalued |
| NNN NNN REIT, Inc. | $40.95 | $42.18 | +3.0% | Fairly valued |
| MAC The Macerich Company | $23.05 | $8.01 | -65.2% | Gap wider than 60% |
When does SPG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Simon Property Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How SPG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2026 | -1.5% |
| 11 May 2026 | +1.8% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | -1.0% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | +3.9% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | +5.4% |
| 12 May 2025 | -1.4% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +3.3% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | +1.8% |
Simon Property Group at a glance
Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG) is a prominent S&P 100 real estate investment trust that specializes in owning and developing a portfolio of world-class shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations.
- Market value
- $65.2B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Retail REITs
- Beta to the US market
- 0.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model values Simon Property Group three ways and blends them; the range around the fair value comes from 2,000 simulations of the dividend model. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SPG was $209.08. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $206.83, a change of -1.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Simon Property Group's valuation
Is Simon Property Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SPG reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $206.83 a share against a last close of $200.95, a gap of +2.9%.
What is SPG's fair value?
$206.83 a share as of 3 Oct 2026. The fair value blends three methods: a cash-flow multiple against comparable companies, a dividend model, and the value of the properties. The model's own range is $189.11 to $228.89.
What price range does the model give SPG?
$172.56 to $250.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Simon Property Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SPG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +5.4% around the report of 4 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SPG is high. For real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at the dividend record: at least three years of paid dividends with no cut. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.