NYSE: SRE · Diversified Utilities
Sempra (SRE) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Sempra (SRE) at $76.09 a share. The stock last closed at $78.38, which puts the model's fair value 2.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Sempra.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Sempra is an energy holding company founded in 1998 and headquartered in San Diego, California. It conducts its operations both domestically and internationally.
Faircurve's model valued Sempra on 3 Oct 2026, giving a fair value of $76.09 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $75.55, meaning the fair value moved +0.7%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $63.48 to $92.24, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The model gives Sempra an overall quality score of 25 out of 100 against comparable companies. The quality factors include Profitability 0, Earnings quality 41, Growth quality 34, Capital discipline 50, Balance sheet 38, and Stability 7. The model compares Sempra with Avista Corporation (AVA), Unitil Corporation (UTL), Dominion Energy, Inc. (D), Vistra Corp. (VST), Entergy Corporation (ETR), Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL), and Exelon Corporation (EXC). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -16.4% to +9.1%, with a median size of 1.4%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SRE?
The calibrated range for SRE over 63 trading days is $63.48 to $92.24. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $49.73 to $108.27. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SRE score on business quality?
Sempra's overall quality score is 25 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 3.7%ROIC | 5.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 41 | -2.58xFCF / net income | -0.69x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 34 | 5.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 1.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 38 | 5.60xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.51x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 7 | 6.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.9 pts |
How does SRE compare with similar companies?
The companies in diversified utilities closest to Sempra in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AES The AES Corporation | $14.91 | $17.53 | +17.6% | Low evidence grade |
| AVA Avista Corporation | $35.31 | $45.34 | +28.4% | Undervalued |
| UTL Unitil Corporation | $51.20 | $59.79 | +16.8% | Undervalued |
| D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $61.31 | $54.62 | -10.9% | Fairly valued |
| VST Vistra Corp. | $140.02 | $157.02 | +12.1% | Fairly valued |
| ETR Entergy Corporation | $100.91 | $83.68 | -17.1% | Overvalued |
| XEL Xcel Energy Inc. | $71.40 | $66.58 | -6.8% | Fairly valued |
| EXC Exelon Corporation | $40.73 | $48.00 | +17.8% | Undervalued |
When does SRE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sempra's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How SRE moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -0.9% |
| 7 May 2026 | -2.3% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +1.9% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +0.3% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +0.7% |
| 8 May 2025 | -0.6% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -16.4% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +9.1% |
Sempra at a glance
Sempra, an energy holding company founded in 1998 and headquartered in San Diego, California, conducts its operations both domestically and internationally. The firm adopted its current name in July 2021, having previously been known as Sempra Energy.
- Market value
- $51.2B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Diversified Utilities
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $13.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.03
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sempra on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SRE was $75.55. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $76.09, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sempra's valuation
Is Sempra stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SRE reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $76.09 a share against a last close of $78.38, a gap of -2.9%.
What is SRE's fair value?
$76.09 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $49.73 to $108.27.
What price range does the model give SRE?
$63.48 to $92.24 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Sempra report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SRE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.4% around the report of 25 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SRE is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.