NYSE: UTL · Diversified Utilities
Unitil (UTL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Unitil (UTL) at $62.53 a share. The stock last closed at $51.20, which puts the model's fair value 22.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Unitil Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Unitil Corporation functions as a public utility holding company, with its primary operations centered on the provision of electricity and natural gas.
On 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $62.53 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $62.61, so the fair value moved -0.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $52.46 to $76.24, built from the fair value, and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026); ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 58 out of 100, which is a score against comparable companies. These comparable companies include Avista Corporation (AVA), Sempra (SRE), Middlesex Water Company (MSEX), Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN), H2O America (HTO), and MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 1.8%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give UTL?
The calibrated range for UTL over 63 trading days is $52.46 to $76.24. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $44.79 to $81.97. In 70% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does UTL score on business quality?
Unitil's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 55 | 5.4%ROIC | 5.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 57 | -0.80xFCF / net income | -0.75x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 81 | 8.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 59 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 55 | 4.49xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.30x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 25 | 2.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.2 pts |
How does UTL compare with similar companies?
The companies in diversified utilities closest to Unitil in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVA Avista Corporation | $35.31 | $44.90 | +27.2% | Undervalued |
| AES The AES Corporation | $14.91 | $17.46 | +17.1% | Low evidence grade |
| SRE Sempra | $78.38 | $75.55 | -3.6% | Fairly valued |
| MSEX Middlesex Water Company | $53.56 | $49.02 | -8.5% | Fairly valued |
| HE Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. | $8.90 | $9.25 | +3.9% | Low evidence grade |
| NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company | $47.38 | $57.21 | +20.7% | Undervalued |
| HTO H2O America | $60.13 | $54.98 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| MGEE MGE Energy, Inc. | $70.77 | $73.63 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
When does UTL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Unitil's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How UTL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | -0.6% |
| 4 May 2026 | -2.8% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | +0.9% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | 0.0% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | -5.4% |
| 6 May 2025 | -5.9% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | +2.9% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | +0.2% |
Unitil at a glance
Unitil Corporation functions as a public utility holding company, with its primary operations centered on the provision of electricity and natural gas.
- Market value
- $917M
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Diversified Utilities
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $618M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +13.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- -0.29
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Unitil on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for UTL was $62.61. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $62.53, a change of -0.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Unitil's valuation
Is Unitil stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, UTL reads as Undervalued as of 30 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $62.53 a share against a last close of $51.20, a gap of +22.1%.
What is UTL's fair value?
$62.53 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $44.79 to $81.97.
What price range does the model give UTL?
$52.46 to $76.24 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Unitil report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has UTL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.9% around the report of 6 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for UTL is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.