NASDAQ: TMUS · Telecommunications Services
T-Mobile US (TMUS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values T-Mobile US (TMUS) at $155.70 a share. The stock last closed at $163.64, which puts the model's fair value 4.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. T-Mobile US, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
T-Mobile US, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, offers mobile telecommunications services across the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $155.70 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $158.05, so the fair value moved -1.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $149.44 to $191.79 and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 66 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM), and Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS). The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 6.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TMUS?
The calibrated range for TMUS over 63 trading days is $149.44 to $191.79. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TMUS's own options imply (35% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $93.27 to $234.70. In 46% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TMUS score on business quality?
T-Mobile US's overall quality score is 66 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 64 | 8.4%ROIC | 7.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 1.45xFCF / net income | 0.99x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 66 | 8.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 59 | 6.8%Net buybacks / market value | 6.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 29 | 4.00xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.33x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 3.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.9 pts |
How does TMUS compare with similar companies?
The companies in telecommunications services closest to T-Mobile US in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T AT&T Inc. | $24.30 | $24.49 | +0.8% | Low evidence grade |
| VZ Verizon Communications Inc. | $45.92 | $43.38 | -5.5% | Low evidence grade |
| CMCSA Comcast Corporation | $21.57 | $28.22 | +30.8% | Undervalued |
| CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. | $109.29 | $163.19 | +49.3% | Low evidence grade |
| ECHO EchoStar Corporation | $94.25 | $74.64 | -20.8% | Data under review |
| LUMN Lumen Technologies, Inc. | $5.75 | $8.27 | +43.8% | Low evidence grade |
| IRDM Iridium Communications Inc. | $48.96 | $52.68 | +7.6% | Fairly valued |
| TDS Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. | $35.39 | $36.58 | +3.4% | Fairly valued |
All telecommunications services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does TMUS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
T-Mobile US's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TMUS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.2% over one month.
How TMUS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | -5.7% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | +8.4% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +7.6% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -4.2% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +6.1% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -10.2% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +6.0% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +6.6% |
T-Mobile US at a glance
T-Mobile US, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, offers mobile telecommunications services across the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
- Market value
- $177.5B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Telecommunications Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $97.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 17
- Beta to the US market
- -0.40
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices T-Mobile US on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TMUS was $158.05. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $155.70, a change of -1.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about T-Mobile US's valuation
Is T-Mobile US stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TMUS reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $155.70 a share against a last close of $163.64, a gap of -4.9%.
What is TMUS's fair value?
$155.70 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $93.27 to $234.70.
What price range does the model give TMUS?
$149.44 to $191.79 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does T-Mobile US report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TMUS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -10.2% around the report of 24 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TMUS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.