NASDAQ: EBAY · Specialty Retail
eBay (EBAY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values eBay (EBAY) at $116.78 a share. The stock last closed at $106.40, which puts the model's fair value 9.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. eBay Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
eBay Inc. manages a global e-commerce ecosystem. This framework primarily encompasses its flagship website, ebay.com, alongside its suite of dedicated mobile applications.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $116.78 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $120.54, and the fair value moved -3.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $96.28 to $126.72, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 45 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., Williams-Sonoma, Inc., MercadoLibre, Inc., Ulta Beauty, Inc., Casey's General Stores, Inc., Best Buy Co., Inc., and Tractor Supply Company. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports include +0.5% on 5 Aug 2026 and -15.9% on 29 Oct 2025.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EBAY?
The calibrated range for EBAY over 63 trading days is $96.28 to $126.72. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that EBAY's own options imply (39% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $78.30 to $170.78. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EBAY score on business quality?
eBay's overall quality score is 45 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 70 | 22.9%ROIC | 15.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | 1.09xFCF / net income | 2.18x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 57 | 7.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 43 | 4.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | 1.59xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.23x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 29 | 13.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.4 pts |
How does EBAY compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to eBay in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $84.90 | $90.35 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $232.30 | $209.39 | -9.9% | Fairly valued |
| MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | $1,696.56 | $1,825.28 | +7.6% | Fairly valued |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $543.69 | $570.28 | +4.9% | Fairly valued |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $617.76 | $583.98 | -5.5% | Fairly valued |
| PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | $75.38 | $87.30 | +15.8% | Low evidence grade |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $87.97 | $113.73 | +29.3% | Undervalued |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $31.09 | $32.92 | +5.9% | Fairly valued |
When does EBAY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
eBay's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. EBAY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.2% over one month.
How EBAY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +0.5% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +3.1% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | +6.0% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -15.9% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +16.9% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +0.7% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -10.5% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -8.4% |
eBay at a glance
eBay Inc. manages an extensive global e-commerce ecosystem designed to facilitate transactions between buyers and sellers. This framework primarily encompasses its flagship website, ebay.com, alongside its suite of dedicated mobile applications.
- Market value
- $47.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $13.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +12.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 19
- Beta to the US market
- 0.66
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices eBay on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EBAY was $120.54. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $116.78, a change of -3.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about eBay's valuation
Is eBay stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EBAY reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $116.78 a share against a last close of $106.40, a gap of +9.8%.
What is EBAY's fair value?
$116.78 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $78.30 to $170.78.
What price range does the model give EBAY?
$96.28 to $126.72 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does eBay report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EBAY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +16.9% around the report of 30 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EBAY is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.