NASDAQ: MIDD · Industrial Machinery
Middleby (MIDD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Middleby (MIDD) at $126.32 a share. The stock last closed at $130.14, which puts the model's fair value 2.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. The Middleby Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 2 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $124.41 to $126.32 (+1.5%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $130.14 is 2.9% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 25 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 38% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MIDD?
The calibrated range for MIDD over 63 trading days is $88.12 to $210.12. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MIDD's own options imply (131% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $98.47 to $157.67. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Nov 2026
The Middleby Corporation is a global enterprise specialising in the design, production, marketing, distribution, and servicing of equipment for commercial foodservice, industrial food processing, and residential kitchens. Its ticker is MIDD, in Industrials, Industrial Machinery.
On 2 Nov 2026, the model's fair value for The Middleby Corporation was $126.32 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $124.41, so the fair value moved +1.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $80.30 to $225.13, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Each week the range is calibrated against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. Faircurve's model grades the evidence High. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
On quality, the model gives the company an overall score of 46 out of 100 against comparable companies. Earnings quality and capital discipline both score 100. Net buybacks are 17.5% of market value, against a peer median of 0.1%. Profitability scores 0, with ROIC at -2.7% against a peer median of 10.8%. The model compares it with AAON, JBT Marel, EnPro Industries, Gates Industrial, Terex, ESAB and Badger Meter.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MIDD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Middleby's next earnings report is scheduled for 25 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MIDD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 37.9% over one month.
How MIDD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2026 | -8.7% |
| 7 May 2026 | +15.6% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +7.0% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -0.2% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -17.0% |
| 7 May 2025 | +3.1% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -1.7% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -7.3% |
How does MIDD score on business quality?
Middleby's overall quality score is 46 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -2.7%ROIC | 10.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 19 | -17.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 17.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -82.09xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.41x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does MIDD compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Middleby in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON AAON, Inc. | $54.42 | $70.25 | +29.1% | Undervalued |
| JBTM JBT Marel Corporation | $126.82 | $104.54 | -17.6% | Overvalued |
| NPO EnPro Industries, Inc. | $257.26 | $222.45 | -13.5% | Fairly valued |
| GTES Gates Industrial Corporation plc | $23.56 | $27.63 | +17.3% | Undervalued |
| TEX Terex Corporation | $54.51 | $54.77 | +0.5% | Fairly valued |
| MIR Mirion Technologies, Inc. | $17.13 | $17.72 | +3.4% | Low evidence grade |
| ESAB ESAB Corporation | $79.12 | $73.96 | -6.5% | Fairly valued |
| BMI Badger Meter, Inc. | $159.55 | $145.74 | -8.7% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MIDD, the peer-implied price, is $137.72 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Middleby at a glance
The Middleby Corporation is a global enterprise specializing in the design, production, marketing, distribution, and servicing of a comprehensive range of equipment for commercial foodservice, industrial food processing, and residential kitchens.
- Market value
- $5.4B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -21.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.88
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MIDD was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Middleby on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MIDD was $124.41. As of 2 Nov 2026 it is $126.32, a change of +1.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Middleby's valuation
Is Middleby stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MIDD reads as Fairly valued as of 2 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $126.32 a share against a last close of $130.14, a gap of -2.9%.
What is MIDD's fair value?
$126.32 a share as of 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $98.47 to $157.67.
What price range does the model give MIDD?
$88.12 to $210.12 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Middleby report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 25 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MIDD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -17.0% around the report of 6 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MIDD is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MIDD
The model holds no idea open on MIDD today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MIDD with their outcomes. A free account is enough.