NYSE: JBTM · Industrial Machinery
JBT Marel (JBTM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values JBT Marel (JBTM) at $101.67 a share. The stock last closed at $108.60, which puts the model's fair value 6.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. JBT Marel Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
JBT Marel Corporation is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and offers sophisticated technological solutions to the global food and beverage industries. The company’s operations span North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $101.67 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $101.74, meaning the fair value moved -0.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $84.82 to $123.26, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The business scores 37 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. The model compares it with Terex Corporation, The Middleby Corporation, AAON, Inc., Gates Industrial Corporation plc, EnPro Industries, Inc., Franklin Electric Co., Inc., ESAB Corporation, and A. O. Smith Corporation. The stock has moved -4.3% on 3 Aug 2026, +13.7% on 4 May 2026, -0.6% on 23 Feb 2026, +9.8% on 3 Nov 2025, +5.2% on 4 Aug 2025, +15.8% on 5 May 2025, +13.7% on 24 Feb 2025, and +14.8% on 22 Oct 2024 around its last eight earnings reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give JBTM?
The calibrated range for JBTM over 63 trading days is $84.82 to $123.26. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $78.74 to $128.59. In 41% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does JBTM score on business quality?
JBT Marel's overall quality score is 37 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 3.9%ROIC | 9.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 60 | 1.61xFCF / net income | 1.48x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 84 | 121.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 41 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 31 | 2.88xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.42x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 9 | 2.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does JBTM compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to JBT Marel in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX Terex Corporation | $56.71 | $49.12 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | $104.57 | $124.63 | +19.2% | Undervalued |
| AAON AAON, Inc. | $83.27 | $84.35 | +1.3% | Fairly valued |
| GTES Gates Industrial Corporation plc | $27.65 | $30.45 | +10.1% | Fairly valued |
| NPO EnPro Industries, Inc. | $332.56 | $253.12 | -23.9% | Overvalued |
| FELE Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | $98.65 | $99.64 | +1.0% | Fairly valued |
| ESAB ESAB Corporation | $69.90 | $72.85 | +4.2% | Fairly valued |
| AOS A. O. Smith Corporation | $56.75 | $68.87 | +21.4% | Undervalued |
When does JBTM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
JBT Marel's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 12.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How JBTM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | -4.3% |
| 4 May 2026 | +13.7% |
| 23 Feb 2026 | -0.6% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | +9.8% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | +5.2% |
| 5 May 2025 | +15.8% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | +13.7% |
| 22 Oct 2024 | +14.8% |
JBT Marel at a glance
Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and established in 1994, JBT Marel Corporation offers sophisticated technological solutions to the global food and beverage industries, with operations spanning North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia.
- Market value
- $5.7B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.88
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices JBT Marel on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for JBTM was $101.74. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $101.67, a change of -0.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about JBT Marel's valuation
Is JBT Marel stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, JBTM reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $101.67 a share against a last close of $108.60, a gap of -6.4%.
What is JBTM's fair value?
$101.67 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $78.74 to $128.59.
What price range does the model give JBTM?
$84.82 to $123.26 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does JBT Marel report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has JBTM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.8% around the report of 5 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for JBTM is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.