NYSE: ACI ยท Grocery Stores
Albertsons Companies (ACI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 6 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Albertsons Companies (ACI) at $19.05 a share. The stock last closed at $13.24, which puts the model's fair value 43.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Albertsons Companies, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 6 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $18.22 to $19.05 (+4.6%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $13.24 is 43.9% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 6 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ACI?
The calibrated range for ACI over 63 trading days is $11.61 to $15.56. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ACI's own options imply (44% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $11.15 to $27.70. In 72% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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When does ACI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Albertsons Companies's next earnings report is scheduled for 6 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ACI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.7% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ACI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ACI
How does ACI score on business quality?
Albertsons Companies's overall quality score is 39 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 2 | 1.6%ROIC | 5.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 29 | 3.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 92 | 20.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 25 | 4.98xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.36x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 40 | 0.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.3 pts |
How does ACI compare with similar companies?
The companies in grocery stores closest to Albertsons Companies in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $51.60 | $54.46 | +5.5% | Fairly valued |
| GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | $13.14 | $12.23 | -6.9% | Low evidence grade |
| KR The Kroger Co. | $69.43 | $85.12 | +22.6% | Undervalued |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | $23.43 | $19.81 | -15.5% | Overvalued |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $97.42 | $106.41 | +9.2% | Fairly valued |
| ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | $109.85 | $106.27 | -3.3% | Fairly valued |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $28.62 | $32.05 | +12.0% | Fairly valued |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $15.51 | $14.13 | -8.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ACI, the peer-implied price, is $34.42 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Albertsons Companies at a glance
Albertsons Companies, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the food and drug retail industry in the United States.
- Market value
- $6.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Grocery Stores
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $82.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- -0.39
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ACI was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Albertsons Companies on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 31 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ACI was $18.22. As of 6 Nov 2026 it is $19.05, a change of +4.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Albertsons Companies's valuation
Is Albertsons Companies stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ACI reads as Undervalued as of 6 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $19.05 a share against a last close of $13.24, a gap of +43.9%.
What is ACI's fair value?
$19.05 a share as of 6 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $11.15 to $27.70.
What price range does the model give ACI?
$11.61 to $15.56 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Albertsons Companies report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 6 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ACI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -24.5% around the report of 23 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ACI is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ACI
The model holds no idea open on ACI today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ACI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.