NASDAQ: SFM · Grocery Stores
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 4 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) at $54.46 a share. The stock last closed at $51.60, which puts the model's fair value 5.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 4 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $53.70 to $54.46 (+1.4%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $51.60 is 5.5% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 18 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 15% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give SFM?
The calibrated range for SFM over 63 trading days is $44.32 to $62.20. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SFM's own options imply (51% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $36.47 to $77.25. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 4 Nov 2026
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. is a U.S.-based retailer that specializes in providing fresh, natural, and organic food options. The company's comprehensive product lineup includes both temperature-sensitive and shelf-stable goods.
Faircurve's model gives a fair value of $54.46 a share on 4 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 31 Oct 2026, gave $53.70, so the fair value moved +1.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $44.32 to $62.20. It is built around the price implied by the stock's own options volatility and calibrated weekly against realised prices (6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade covers input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 70 out of 100. Profitability scores 90 (ROIC 14.1%, peer median 5.3%). Balance sheet scores 79 (net debt to EBITDA 2.08x, peer median 4.07x). Earnings quality scores 47 (FCF to net income 0.68x, peer median 2.86x). The model compares Sprouts with Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI), The Kroger Co. (KR), Laureate Education, Inc. (LAUR), Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN), Covista Inc. (CVSA) and PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT).
Written from the figures on this page for the 4 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does SFM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sprouts Farmers Market's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
On 5 Nov 2026, SFM's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 14.8% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
How SFM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | -1.7% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | -25.5% |
| 29 Jul 2026 | +11.7% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +15.7% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | -0.3% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -27.7% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -3.4% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -18.6% |
How does SFM score on business quality?
Sprouts Farmers Market's overall quality score is 70 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 90 | 14.1%ROIC | 5.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 47 | 0.68xFCF / net income | 2.86x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 60 | 14.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 65 | 8.9%Net buybacks / market value | 3.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 79 | 2.08xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.07x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 75 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.4 pts |
How does SFM compare with similar companies?
The companies in grocery stores closest to Sprouts Farmers Market in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. | $13.24 | $18.22 | +37.6% | Undervalued |
| GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | $13.14 | $12.23 | -6.9% | Low evidence grade |
| KR The Kroger Co. | $69.43 | $85.12 | +22.6% | Undervalued |
| LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | $33.29 | $34.05 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
| CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | $103.35 | $98.61 | -4.6% | Low evidence grade |
| REYN Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. | $24.53 | $23.98 | -2.2% | Fairly valued |
| CVSA Covista Inc. | $112.96 | $125.59 | +11.2% | Fairly valued |
| PSMT PriceSmart, Inc. | $162.56 | $164.78 | +1.4% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for SFM, the peer-implied price, is $60.72 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Sprouts Farmers Market at a glance
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. is a U.S.-based retailer that specializes in providing fresh, natural, and organic food options. The company's comprehensive product lineup includes both temperature-sensitive and shelf-stable goods.
- Market value
- $4.6B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Grocery Stores
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.01
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. SFM was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sprouts Farmers Market on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 31 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for SFM was $53.70. As of 4 Nov 2026 it is $54.46, a change of +1.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sprouts Farmers Market's valuation
Is Sprouts Farmers Market stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SFM reads as Fairly valued as of 4 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $54.46 a share against a last close of $51.60, a gap of +5.5%.
What is SFM's fair value?
$54.46 a share as of 4 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $36.47 to $77.25.
What price range does the model give SFM?
$44.32 to $62.20 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Sprouts Farmers Market report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SFM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -27.7% around the report of 29 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SFM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SFM
The model holds no idea open on SFM today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SFM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.