NYSE: ADT · Security & Protection Services
ADT (ADT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values ADT (ADT) at $8.57 a share. The stock last closed at $6.25, which puts the model's fair value 37.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. ADT Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, ADT Inc. has been a leading provider of security, automation, and smart home solutions for consumers and businesses throughout the United States since its founding in 1874.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $8.57 a share on 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.8% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $8.82. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $7.19 to $10.45, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 64 out of 100 against comparable companies. These comparable companies are The Brink's Company (BCO), The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO), Brady Corporation (BRC), MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA), CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW), Allegion plc (ALLE), and Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved a median size of 6.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ADT?
The calibrated range for ADT over 63 trading days is $7.19 to $10.45. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $4.85 to $13.04. In 69% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ADT score on business quality?
ADT's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 63 | 8.4%ROIC | 5.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 3.04xFCF / net income | 0.83x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 41 | 4.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 87 | 14.4%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 43 | 2.77xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.70x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 45 | 4.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.1 pts |
How does ADT compare with similar companies?
The companies in security & protection services closest to ADT in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCO The Brink's Company | $101.80 | $124.30 | +22.1% | Undervalued |
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | $31.36 | $29.87 | -4.8% | Fairly valued |
| BRC Brady Corporation | $84.78 | $83.93 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | $181.23 | $176.03 | -2.9% | Fairly valued |
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | $33.43 | $38.87 | +16.3% | Undervalued |
| ALLE Allegion plc | $154.21 | $161.93 | +5.0% | Fairly valued |
| NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | $36.17 | $34.17 | -5.5% | Fairly valued |
All security & protection services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does ADT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
ADT's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How ADT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +3.1% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +5.3% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | -14.6% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -7.6% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | +0.1% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +2.4% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +8.8% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +13.9% |
ADT at a glance
Headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, ADT Inc. has been a leading provider of security, automation, and smart home solutions for consumers and businesses throughout the United States since its founding in 1874.
- Market value
- $5.1B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.67
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices ADT on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ADT was $8.82. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $8.57, a change of -2.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about ADT's valuation
Is ADT stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ADT reads as Undervalued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $8.57 a share against a last close of $6.25, a gap of +37.1%.
What is ADT's fair value?
$8.57 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $4.85 to $13.04.
What price range does the model give ADT?
$7.19 to $10.45 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does ADT report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ADT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.6% around the report of 2 Mar 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ADT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.