NASDAQ: NSSC · Security & Protection Services
Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) at $34.57 a share. The stock last closed at $36.17, which puts the model's fair value 4.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Napco Security Technologies, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. specialises in the creation, production, and distribution of advanced electronic security solutions, operating both within the U.S. and globally.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $34.57 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.2% since the previous run, which gave $34.17 on 26 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $28.84 to $41.91, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score for the business is 85 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with CoreCivic, Inc., Brady Corporation, The GEO Group, Inc., The Brink's Company, ADT Inc., MSA Safety Incorporated, and Allegion plc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports include -4.4% on 24 Aug 2026 and +29.6% on 5 May 2025. The median size, ignoring direction, for these moves is 14.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NSSC?
The calibrated range for NSSC over 63 trading days is $28.84 to $41.91. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $25.26 to $47.21. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NSSC score on business quality?
Napco Security Technologies's overall quality score is 85 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 56.9%ROIC | 6.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 1.38xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 67 | 11.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 66 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -2.44xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.60x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 48 | 3.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.2 pts |
How does NSSC compare with similar companies?
The companies in security & protection services closest to Napco Security Technologies in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | $33.43 | $40.36 | +20.7% | Undervalued |
| BRC Brady Corporation | $84.78 | $84.81 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | $31.36 | $30.20 | -3.7% | Fairly valued |
| BCO The Brink's Company | $101.80 | $126.40 | +24.2% | Undervalued |
| ADT ADT Inc. | $6.25 | $8.64 | +38.2% | Undervalued |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | $181.23 | $176.73 | -2.5% | Fairly valued |
| ALLE Allegion plc | $154.21 | $162.12 | +5.1% | Fairly valued |
All security & protection services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does NSSC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Napco Security Technologies's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How NSSC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 14.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2026 | -4.4% |
| 4 May 2026 | -10.5% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | +18.6% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -6.3% |
| 25 Aug 2025 | +18.0% |
| 5 May 2025 | +29.6% |
| 3 Feb 2025 | -28.0% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | -6.9% |
Napco Security Technologies at a glance
Operating both within the U.S. and globally, Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) specializes in the creation, production, and distribution of advanced electronic security solutions.
- Market value
- $1.3B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $224M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 1.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Napco Security Technologies on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NSSC was $34.17. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $34.57, a change of +1.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Napco Security Technologies's valuation
Is Napco Security Technologies stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NSSC reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $34.57 a share against a last close of $36.17, a gap of -4.4%.
What is NSSC's fair value?
$34.57 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $25.26 to $47.21.
What price range does the model give NSSC?
$28.84 to $41.91 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Napco Security Technologies report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NSSC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 14.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +29.6% around the report of 5 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NSSC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.